The opening loss to VMI hurts a bit less when you take a peek at some of the trouble our conference mates have been having so far this season.

The best records in the conference belong to the undefeated LSU Tigers, and the one-loss Arkansas Razorbacks and South Carolina Gamecocks.  In addition to belonging to the “One or Fewer Losses Club,” these three programs have something else in common – they comprise 50% of the six weakest schedules in the entire country. 

That’s right – of the 344 rated schedules, Arkansas’ schedule is rated 339th toughest, South Carolina’s is rated the 341st toughest, and the LSU Tigers are 344th and dead last in the country. 

That’s one way to do it.  (Don’t brag just yet – only one SEC team is in the top 100 in Strength of Schedule.: UT 17, Mississippi 102, UK 144, Vandy 197, Florida 211.)

As easy as these three schedules have been, LSU’s eight quality wins include an impressive six-point home blow-out of Centenary (Pomeroy Ranking 320).  Arkansas has already lost to Missouri State and beat South Alabama by a whopping two points (Pomeroy Ranking 182).  South Carolina has lost to the College of Charleston (Pomeroy Ranking 125).

Tennessee has lost to Temple and Gonzaga, and Florida has lost to both Florida State and Syracuse, and beaten Washington State by a pair of free throws. 

Everyone else in the conference has as many losses as Kentucky does, or more.

Vandy’s three losses include a 19-point home loss to Illinois Chicago. 

Alabama’s three losses include the season opening loss to Mercer (Pomeroy Ranking 212), and a 23-point beating at the hands of Oregon (Pomeroy Ranking 101). 

Loyola Chicago (Pomeroy Ranking 224) beat Georgia by 21.

Mississippi (Strength of Schedule 301st) has four losses, including a 33-point whoopin’ at the hands of New Mexico (103-70). 

Also with four losses, Auburn has lost to both Mercer (at home) and Northern Iowa (Pomeroy Ranking 225). 

Mississippi State’s four losses include a home loss to the 3-6 UNC-Charlotte 49ers.

Against this background, our three losses don’t seem quite so hideous.  We lost to the highest scoring team in the country on opening night, to the best team in the country on our second night, and to a top 25 team on a night when our guards missed 21 of 23 shots from beyond the three-point arc, and our starting point guard played with ten stitches in his head. 

Pomeroy puts us presently at number 32 in the country with the best defense in the SEC and the 13th best defense in the country.  Tennessee, Florida, and Mississippi are all rated as having top twenty offenses (at 12th, 15th, and 20th, respectively).  We are fourth in the SEC in overall offensive efficiency; we would rank much higher in this category were it not for our high incidence of turnovers.

The www.KenPom.com site generates predictions for future games based on a team’s year-to-date performances.  According to those computer-generated predictions, the University of Kentucky is specifically predicted to lose only three more games during the coming regular season – to Louisville, and the away games at Florida and Tennessee.

CAVEAT: the away games with Vandy and South Carolina are predicted to be very close, and the home victory over Tennessee far from certain (all three are predicted to be two-point wins). 

Taking into account the vicissitudes of fortune (and the observable fact that teams do not win every game they are “supposed” to win), the computer generated end of regular season record predicted for UK is 23-8, with a predicted SEC record of 12-4.

This does not include any tournament games, and would mark a significant (6-game) improvement over last year’s pre-tourney experience.