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Around SBN: Has Kentucky Improved Since the Non-Conference Season?

A look at how Liggins affects his teammates' turnover rates

[Promoted from the diaries -- Ed.]

Tru said something that struck me as an interesting question in a comment he made in the thread looking at UK's stats through the first 30% of the season.

… that is what, in fact, has happened. It has. Liggins may have more turnovers than everyone else, but when he is in the game, the team has less.

It’s easy to see why that may be. Liggins has the ball in his hands a lot more, while almost everyone else had to help out when Porter was playing the point. The problems with Porter go beyond his personal turnovers. He was often getting the ball to the wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think we all believe the offense runs much, much better when Liggins is in the game, but I was curious to see how closely the numbers matched the Mark 1 eyeball test and particularly whether Liggins' presence on the floor might help prevent his teammates from turning the ball over moreso than when he is on the bench. 

What I have done is gone through the play-by-play data and sorted turnovers for each game into two groups depending on whether Liggins was in the game at that time or not.

Star-divide

The results are below.  A couple of caveats first however.

* There is no data for the Kansas State game because I couldn't find a play-by-play record for that game that included substitutions.  I'm not particularly worried about it however, since Liggins only played 2 minutes due to, shall we say, unusual circumstances.

* CLEARLY there are going to be turnovers committed by players that have absolutely nothing to do with who else is on the floor, but I assume those kinds of turnovers will even out when looking at this kind of split.

* In addition to a breakdown of turnovers, I've also included the +/- for Liggins since I was looking at the play-by-play data anyway.  It doesn't have any direct relevance to this question, but I thought it was interesting.  I don't know of any sites that track this for college players, but if somebody else does please share the link in the comments.

* The column "TO w/ DL" is the number of turnovers committed by the other four players when Liggins is in the game.  It does not include turnovers committed by Liggins.  Those turnovers get their own category.

I think the abbreviations I used are fairly self-explanatory, but just in case:

'MIN' is Minutes Played

'DL' is DeAndre Liggins

'TO' is Turnovers

 

OPPONENT MIN w/ DL MIN w/o DL DL TO TO w/ DL TO w/o DL DL +/- no DL +/-
VMI 27 13 7 8 10 -4 -4
UNC 18 22 4 7 17 -2 -17
Del. State 16 24 1 3 8 15 14
Longwood 19 21 4 7 8 16 18
West Virginia 27 13 4 11 8 21 -10
Lamar 25 15 2 7 7 26 16
Miami 32 8 3 6 5 4 -10
Miss. Val. St 20 20 3 4 7 21 2
TOTALS 184 136 28 53 70 97 9

In summary, in the 184 minutes played with Liggins on the floor, the team committed a total of 81 turnovers of which 28 were committed by Liggins and 53 by his teammates.  In the 136 minutes played with Liggins on the bench, the team committed 70 turnovers.

With Liggins, the team averages 17.61 TO/40 minutes
Without Liggins: the team averages 20.59 TO/40 minutes

I'll need to do something similar with Porter before we can make a direct comparison between the two, but in the meantime I think we can say a few things about Liggins' affect on his teammates.

  1. Liggins averages 6.09 TO/40 minutes here (remember, it doesn't include K-State).  That's roughly 34.6% of the total when he is on the floor.
  2. Porter averages 5.27 TO/40 minutes.  Now, some of those turnovers occur when Liggins is on the floor with Porter, but I think it is safe to say that the majority of Porter's turnovers occur when he is the primary ball-handler (and Liggins is on the bench).
  3. Assuming that to be the case, this would mean that Porter accounts for roughly somewhere between 20-25% of the total when he is on the floor.
  4. This means that the other 4 guys average 11.52 TO/40 min when Liggins is on the floor and the other 4 guys average roughly between 15-16 TO/40 minutes when Porter is on the floor.

Like I said, I'll need to do a breakdown for Porter before we can say for sure, but it certainly looks like the numbers support the first hand observations that Liggins does a better job taking care of the ball even though he personally averages more turnovers than Porter.

 

 

3 recs  |  Comment 28 comments |

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Dang

My head hurts.Good post and breakdown.

by -Zoso- on Dec 11, 2008 5:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

JL, is that the Mark I, Mod 0 eyeball?

You must have some military time. Nobody else would understand that term!!! Anyway, good post. I think the team is more efficient, too, for what it’s worth, but I’m too lazy to dig out the stats.

by oldcat'69 on Dec 11, 2008 6:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well ...

… my days poking holes in the ocean and carting around Mark 48 ADCAP torpedoes for use against the bad guys made it work very well for me. :-)

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 11, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great work by the Military here

Though I have no idea what you are talking about…just keep it going guys and maybe after I have talked to my son who was Navy I will understand :-)

by kykat51 on Dec 11, 2008 7:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I consider myself somewhat of a stathead

I think you are on to something. Your analysis more than passes the sniff test, and just reinforces what most people see right in front of their eyes when they are watching a UK basketball game this season.

As a side comment, I have a small problem with the personal turnover stats in general. Team turnover stats are much more instructive (and that is, for the most part, what you are analyzing). But don’t even get me started on A/TO ratio.

Most personal basketball stats refer to a single measurable act. A rebound is a rebound, nobody can assist a rebound, and team rebounds are usually measured as a separate statistic. Points, assists, blocks or deflections, all adequately measure a single personal act.

But turnovers… its hard to say what exactly that measures. Some types of turnovers are easy (the ball handler dribbles off his leg), while most aren’t. A turnover on a pass: was it the fault of the receiver or was it a bad pass? Or was it both? A turnover on a shot clock violation, usually is awarded to the guy with his hands on the ball last, but what if he was the last beneficiary of a broken play? A turnover on a offensive screen called foul could be because the the ball handler didnt wait for the screen, or because the screener wasnt set. A turnover on a steal could due to a simple lack of team communication.

I like what you are doing though, because when you measure TO’s as a team stat, what you are measuring is the team performance with certain personnel on the floor. You can give team performance measures as an individual stat, by identifying those minutes the player was on the floor. So while many types of turnovers can be the fault of more than one player, you can still measure the individual influence of a given player on the team’s turnover measure.

by HoboKat on Dec 11, 2008 7:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I Love Stats

But no matter what they say, Liggins should be PG for 25-30 minutes. With Meeks getting 30-35 minutes at SG, Porter and Galloway can split the other 20 minutes at both SG and PG.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 11, 2008 7:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Current minutes

Liggins 21/gm
Meeks 31/gm

Porter 20/gm
Galloway 6/gm

So right now its not that far off from what you are suggesting. I suspect as the season progresses, it the numbers will move towards that end. I think the day that happens, though, all UK fans will breath a huge collective sigh of relief.

by HoboKat on Dec 11, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I don’t think I’ve found anything here that was going to be a surprise to anyone. I was mostly interested in seeing if it was possible to quantify the conclusion that I think every observer of UK has come to regarding the PG position.

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 11, 2008 10:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have a lot of optimism

Built up for this team and Coach…just waiting.

by kykat51 on Dec 11, 2008 9:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm curious...

if the PG is making a pass to another player. That pass gets to the other player, but not in a manner that would make it catchable. Who gets the TO? Might this be what you are seeing in your stats?

GO BIG BLUE!! Long Live Coach G (so long as he wears KY blue)!!!

by bluebloodtoo on Dec 12, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's a good question and I'm not sure what the answer is, though I would imagine someone here does.

My guess is that it’s a judgment call by the official scorer, but I don’t have anything to base that on. IF that’s the case, then those ‘bad pass’ type turnovers should even out between the passer and the passee, but to answer that question for certain would require going back and watching game tape which I’m not about to do (sorry folks, I don’t have that much time on my hands!).

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 12, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is why I LOVE this site...

…excellent analysis. But it likely fails in the gage R&R to make a real solid assesment (that’s six sigma speak for not enough data to draw a real valid conclusion). Regardless, interesting stuff.

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Dec 12, 2008 4:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ivory Soap

The original Six Sigma product. 99.44% pure = +/- 3 Sigma (standard deviation) or 6 Sigma pure. FWIW.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 12, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Since I don't live in a cubical...

All I know of Six Sigma I learned from Dilbert.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Dec 12, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aircraft Engines...

…not bad (says the son of a P& G Purchasing Agent from Cincinnati)

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Dec 12, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You Live In Chicago But Are From Cincy Originally

I live in Chicago but I’m from Cincy originally.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 12, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Raised in Ft. Thomas

…but have lived in Naperville for 10 years.

'..when they bring a knife, you bring a gun...that's the Chicago way..'

by HozeKing on Dec 13, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm A Cake Eater, Too

But the Kenton County version (Fort Mitchell).

Rolling Meadows for 7 years, Chicago area for 34 years now.

by FortyYearCatFan on Dec 13, 2008 10:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, 8 games isn't a whole lot of info

But I’ll probably keep track through the rest of the season, just because it’s something fun to do. It’ll be interesting to see if and how it changes as the season goes on. I’m almost finished looking at Porter, and I’ve got to say, his results were a little surprising.

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 12, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Statistical Significance

Have you run any standard statistical tests on the with-Liggins/without-Liggins date to determine if the difference is statistically significant? You can do it with Excel.

by Fortunatus on Dec 12, 2008 11:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not yet

I want to get Porter finished first. But it’s on the ‘To do’ list.

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Dec 13, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Obvious This Post was before Indiana Game

Liggins is getting schooled by a walk-on point guard and basically he is the best player for Indiana in the 2nd half. Where is the stat for how many fouls given by your teammates because your man beat you off the dribble? I count 6 so far in the 2nd half caused by Liggins. Not moving without the ball. Playing embarrasing to no defense. Look at the first half when Porter was in. Liggins should be way down on the bench. He is playing so bad I cannot remember a worse performance and he is still in the game. Did Coach loose a bet?

by LyricSmith on Dec 13, 2008 6:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Liggins ...

… had a poor game, and really stank up the place.

He’s a freshman. It happens. Move on.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 14, 2008 8:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Liggins

It is painful to watch when Liggins is in the game. He is not a team player on a team that is not playing as one. Liggins is an immature showboater who thinks that he will somehow make it to the NBA draft next spring after he suffers through playing one year of college ball.

by AllBlu76 on Dec 19, 2008 2:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He's just a kid trying to find his fit...

…Give the guy a break…

Steelers fan 1st! UK is my 2nd love.

by vinceuk1 on Dec 19, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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