Virginia Military Institute @ Kentucky: Stats, facts, and analysis

Btn_ball_medium Btn_stats_medium

The Keydets of Virginia Military Institute (VMI) march into Lexington on Friday for a tilt with the Kentucky Wildcats in Rupp Arena at 7:00 PM. This represents the official launch of the 2008-09 season and the first game on the schedule that counts.  Obviously, VMI is a relatively weaker team designed to help Kentucky round out their form before mixing it up with the big boys, but we have had bad experiences with so-called "easy" games before (the most famous of which will go unnamed and unmentioned here).

Here is a little background on VMI:

  • Location:  Lexington, Virginia
  • Enrollment:  1400
  • Mascot/Colors:  Keydets/Red, Yellow and White
  • All-time record:  754-1344 (36%)
  • UK was the last Keydet NCAA tournament opponent in 1976-1977, a Kentucky victory
  • Head coach:  Duggar Baucom
  • Conference Affiliation:  Big South
  • Returning 4 starters and 9 lettermen from last year's 5th place Big South team

A look at the Keydets

Impressive facts

The VMI Keydets are one of the highest-scoring teams in college basketball, and averaged over 100  points per game in the 2006-07 season.  Over the past two seasons, the Keydets have scored in triple digits on 25 separate occasions.  The Keydets have lead the nation the last two years in 3-point shots made.  Defensively, the Keydets have led the nation for the last two seasons.

The bottom line is, the Keydets play basketball at a relentless pace.  To give you an idea of how relentless, their adjusted pace numbers from Kenpom.com for the 06-07 and 07-08 are 90.9 and 79.7 respectively.  Compare that to Kentucky's numbers of 67.6 and 65.5.  If UK continues to run the floor like they have for the two most recent exhibition games, this could turn into an amazing track meet where any score is possible.

A few more items of interest from the VMI Media Guide -- Record last year when:

  • Leading at the half -- 10-3
  • Opponent shoots less than 50% -- 11-3
  • Scoring 90 or more -- 11-2
  • Scoring less than 80 -- 0-6
  • Scoring less than 90 -- 3-13

Statistically speaking

We are going to look at last years stat comparison.  It isn't all that valid this year, particularly since Kentucky is such a different type of team.  The Keydets, however, return mostly intact from last year, and I think the stats comparison from last year will illustrate a few things.  Statistics courtesy of StatSheet.com:


Kentucy Wildcats VMI Keydets Comments
School Information
Conference SEC Big South
State KY VA
Founded 1865 1839
School Type Public Public
Enrollment 26545 1400
Rankings
Conf Standing 2 5
AP Rank 0 0
RPI 0.57 0.43
RPI Rank 57 274 No comparison in comp last year.
SOS 0.57 0.44
SOS Rank 19 321
Wins & Losses
Overall 18-13 (58.1%) 14-15 (48.3%) None of this is particularly relevant this year.
Home 14-4 (77.8%) 8-6 (57.1%)
Away 4-6 (40.0%) 6-7 (46.2%)
Neutral 0-3 (0.0%) 0-2 (0.0%)
Conference 12-4 (75.0%) 6-8 (42.9%)
Top 25 2-5 (28.6%) 0-0 (0.0%)
Blowout (> 19) 5-1 (83.3%) 6-2 (75.0%)
Close (< 6) 6-4 (60.0%) 4-5 (44.4%)
Overtime 1-2 (33.3%) 1-3 (25.0%)
NCAA Tourney 0-1 (0.0%) 0-0 (0.0%)
Scoring Nat. Rnk Nat. Rnk
Points 2124 195 2649 28 VMI can really score.
Points Per Game 68.5 180 91.3 1 Yikes!
Shooting Nat. Rnk Nat. Rnk
FG Made 735 205 945 23
FG Att 1566 293 2125 17
FG Pct 46.9 40 44.5 142 These guys don't mind missing a lot.
FT Made 472 125 423 196
FT Att 644 173 611 204
FT Pct 73.3 51 69.2 163 Not as good as you would expect.
3pt FG Made 182 246 336 4 Wow. Now, UK has had trouble with mad bomber teams before this one. This will really tell if UK has improved their 3-pt. Defense
3pt FG Att 493 294 1045 1
3pt FG Pct 36.9 91 32.2 280
Rebounds Nat. Rnk Nat. Rnk
Rebounds 1107 248 1238 124 Lots of rebounds available for this team.
Reb Per Game 35.7 252 42.7 19 Really good offensive rebounding.
Off Rebs 301 281 433 41
Off Rebs Per Game 9.7 281 14.9 11
Def Rebs 737 166 683 236
Def Rebs Per Game 23.8 117 23.6 135
Assists, Steals, & Blocks Nat. Rnk Nat. Rnk
Assists 395 212 518 40 Good passing team, but lots of shots.
Assists Per Game 12.7 202 17.9 5
Steals 206 184 369 1 Best stealing team in the nation last year.
Steals Per Game 6.6 171 12.7 1
Blocks 149 47 77 260 Short guys can't block shots.
Blocks Per Game 4.8 35 2.7 227
Turnovers & Fouls Nat. Rnk Nat. Rnk
Turnovers 490 91 463 153
TO Per Game 15.8 72 16 65
Fouls 584 178 521 298 Wow. Lots and lots of fouls for both teams.
Fouls Per Game 18.8 149 18 206 Another hack-a-thon?

Players

The Keydets return four starters, but the one player who did leave is two-time Division I leading scorer Reggie Williams, who averaged 27.8 points/9.7 rebounds per game for the Keydets last year.  I think that might ... matter a bit, don't you?

Anyway, here are the main guys expected to see time against the Wildcats.

Player YR P GP GS FG% 3FG% FT% Per Game Averages
MIN PTS REB AST TO STL BLK Comments
C. Holmes Jr G 29 27 44.4 36 70.9 30.9 18.3 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 0.4 All-Big South
T. Holmes Jr G 29 15 41 27 77.3 27.5 15.6 5.9 2.8 2.7 2.2 0.6 Leading Rebounder
W. Bell Jr F 28 22 54.5 41.4 67.1 26.4 8.2 5.8 1.8 2 1.6 0.6
A. Lonon So G 28 27 51.1 18.2 64.9 22.8 4.2 1.4 3.5 2.5 2.1 0 Assist leader
C. Josey So G 27 9 45.9 21.4 43.8 10.6 1.6 2.8 0.4 0.9 0.2 0

Returning Starter

 

In addition, the Keydets return sophomore guard Austin Kenon, who averaged 12.3 points last year.  All other returners averaged in single digits.  The Keydets also have five new freshman players, some of whom had impressive high-school careers, including Michael Sparks from Lexington Tates Creek.  An interesting side note is that Sparks surpassed Darrin Horn of South Carolina (nee Western Kentucky) as the leading scorer in Tates Creek history, so this kid is liable to be good.

The tallest player the Keydets have on the roster is 7'0"/245# center Stephen Sargent, who was red shirted last year.  I don't know if he will be in the starting lineup for the UK game or not.  The Keydets have a couple of other players who are in the 6'6-6'7 range, but generally they are a smaller team than Kentucky.

Analysis

This team, in many ways, is the ideal warm-up for North Carolina -- very high possession team, constant pressure defense, very up-tempo.  The Keydets are kind of like a North Carolina team on fast-forward, and their constant 3-point shooting will provide all kinds of opportunities for the Wildcats to prove how well they have mastered defending the 3-point shot.

Lest you think this is just a run-and-gun team, take note of their assists last year.  VMI averaged almost 18 assists, and are a very unselfish team.  What they are not is a particularly skilled team other than at shooting the 3, and they don't shoot a good percentage from there.  For example, Liberty, who Kentucky beat convincingly, wiped out the Keydets 103-88.  The Keydets later got revenge, but this team is not really as dangerous in reality as they appear on paper, although they are more athletic than you might think.  VMI plays the kind of style that will provide an interesting test for the Wildcats and should provide an entertaining game for the fans.  If Kentucky can hold them under 60 points, it will reflect very well on UK's defensive intensity.

VMI really tested Winthrop,  which was a pretty good team last year, early in the season.  So this style can produce some drama, even though Winthrop throttled them in the return engagement.  The rebounding statistics look more impressive than they are, because VMI plays at such a high pace, there are more rebounds available.

In the final analysis, there is really no reason why Kentucky should not handle the Keydets easily.  The 'Cats are much longer, more athletic and skilled.  The Keydets will give us trouble with their three-point shooting and fast-paced style, and with Kentucky's deeper roster, there will be no more attempts to really slow down games  other than to generally manage the pace to keep the defensive intensity high.  The transition from a very deliberate style to a more up-tempo style looked easy against the much weaker Division II teams we faced, but the Keydets are used to playing nothing but this style and Kentucky must be mindful of the pace and stick to their knitting on defense.

There should be little the Keydets can do to stop Kentucky from scoring on offense other than using ball pressure to create turnovers.  Alas, the 'Cats have proven susceptible to turnovers again early this year, and you can bet the Keydets will not be unaware of this tendency.  Patterson, Stevenson, Harrellson and even Carter should be too much for the Keydets inside, and that figures to be where UK goes to get most of thier work done against VMI.  There are also likely to be a high number of fouls called in this game as both teams tend to foul liberally.

In the end, this is a game which could be a blowout or one of those games where the Big Blue Faithful are wringing their hands, much like the OBU game.  Hopefully, Billy Gillispie will have the Wildcats much more prepared for this one, and we'll see a return of the impressive play we saw against Missouri-St. Louis.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join A Sea Of Blue

You must be a member of A Sea Of Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at A Sea Of Blue. You should read them.

Join A Sea Of Blue

You must be a member of A Sea Of Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at A Sea Of Blue. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker