Taking stock of Kentucky's place in the SEC
After six weeks of football, now is a good time to take stock and see where we are this season, and what our future prospects may be.
With the 'Cats dropping their first game of the season in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, it's time to turn our attention to what lies ahead. First of all, let's take a short trip in the Wayback Machine to look at the five games I said I really wanted this year, and how we've done so far:
- Louisville -- Check. Handed the Cards their second defeat in a row, and at their place.
- Alabama -- Fail. We didn't get the job done in Tuscaloosa. Enough said.
- South Carolina -- Next. We need this one pretty bad.
- Arkansas -- A week from Saturday. We need this one real bad.
- Tennessee -- We have a long time to wait for this one.
So Kentucky stands at 4-1, 0-1 and pretty much on target for the season. So far, we have won all the games we were supposed to win and gone 1-1 on the other two. The two very winnable games coming up now are crucial in terms of UK's bowl picture, which looks pretty good now, but will look much worse if we don't win at least one of the next two games.
South Carolina and Arkansas are both eminently beatable teams, and we get them at home. USC played a much improved game against Ole Miss on Saturday, so they'll be coming into Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday with increased confidence. Despite the score, Arkansas played a much tougher game against Florida than most people realize. They are starting to show signs of improvement, too. Unfortunately for them, they are about to go on a two game road swing to Auburn and Kentucky, and should drop both, although Auburn is so bad right now, they are actually vulnerable to another setback.
After the two game home stand, the 'Cats go on the road to sunny Florida and then to Starkville. The Mississippi State game looks winnable, and we can hope MSU at least beats MTSU before we get them. If they go 0-fer in the next three games, they will be like a pack of rabid dogs down there. Here's hoping they get fed the week before we show up.
After that two-game road swing, we come back home for Georgia (which looks a little bit more winnable now than earlier) and Vanderbilt (which looks a little less winnable now than earlier). Following that, we get a week off before we go down to Rocky Top for the season finale.
If we get one of the next two, then either MSU or Vanderbilt, we will be bowl eligible (but not bowl-assured) going into Neyland. That would place our bowl guarantee squarely on that game, and I would hate to see that happen. So we need to convert 3 out of the four games against USC, Arkansas, MSU and Vanderbilt, our most winnable remaining games, or pull an upset against Florida, Georgia or Tennessee. The first seems a lot more likely, although the 'Cats have pulled off and upset of one of the SEC's top teams in each of the last two years.
It is conceivable, but not likely, that we could take all 4 winnable games remaining and upset one of the others (Tennessee seems the most likely candidate today) and wind up 9-3, shocking the world. Right now, My money is on 7-5, though, with 8-4 looking much more likely if we manage to defeat USC.
Of course, it is possible we go on a slide now and struggle to reach 6 wins, or even fall short. That would be a huge disappointment, as this team looks like it should easily eke out two more wins, even under a really bad scenario. Right now, you would have to say that running off into the ditch doesn't seem likely. Our remaining schedule is challenging, but certainly not brutal like Georgia's is. The Dawgs have road games against LSU, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn back to back to back to back, and if they survive that, they'll be championship-worthy for sure. Kentucky has a much easier road, and even though an SEC East championship is technically possible for the 'Cats, I'm not thinking in those terms.
So right now, in spite of a missed opportunity at Alabama, we are on schedule for realizing our goal of a third straight bowl appearance. That's good news, but we still have to take care of business at home to do it.
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Comments
Remaining schedule
In my view, the only remaining game that is “unwinnable” is at Florida, although the Ole Miss/Florida game brings that feeling into question.
The home games should all be close, except possibly the Arkansas game ( they simply aren’t very good ). USC, Georgia, and Vandy all present major challenges to the ’Cats, but if UK can go 2-1 in those games that certainly opens up the possibility of playing in a warm weather bowl game, as long as UK goes at least 1-1 in the road games ( UT and Miss. St. ).
Not bad considering there were NO preseason prognosticators ( Magazines, etc. ) who picked UK to win even six games, and some had UK at 3-9 or 4-8.
by Ken Howlett on Oct 6, 2008 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Full disclosure...
…I didn’t think UK would make it to a bowl this year with all the losses on offense, but from what I’ve seen so far anything less than an 8-4 finish should be considered a disappointment, and a finish better than that wouldn’t be wholly shocking.
by Todd on Oct 6, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's understandable
The entire nation knew UK lost a load of offensive talent. Kentucky’s defense was overlooked, but that is understandable; it’s been so lousy for so long, that it becomes a reflexive action to think that UK’s defense will be porous, and generous.
I don’t think many thought that ’Bama would be so good, so quick. But Saban has certainly done his job, and done it very well.
Good luck the rest of the way, and please pile-drive the Gators into submission for us.
Thanks in advance.
by Ken Howlett on Oct 6, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This season is UK's and Vandy's
opportunity to take the SEC East. You have to look at it as EVERY game is winnable. I hope that’s what them guys suiting up are thinking anyway. None of that, “Well sure, mathematically and statistically speaking” or “No one can tell you WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN on any given Saturday (Sunday, Thursday, Ragweed Day)” smarm. Now, please don’t think I’m trying to be cheeky because I’ve expressed those sentiments before. But I got to thinking, what if some of those guys are sitting around reading what we are saying? I don’t want them to think that I believe that they can’t win a certain game. I don’t know if they take these thoughts into practice with them, or if they influence their decision to study game tape or if it even influences their actual play on the field.
It can be easy to sit back here and pick what games are “winnable” but what would you say about the guys on the field if they are thinking that EVERY GAME IS WINNABLE? Irrational? Especially if they believe they can “beat Florida AT Florida?” History be damned is what Coach Brooks is telling these guys. Find the weakness’s of the next team and exploit them. Every team can be beat but some teams require deeper scrutiny than others.
I won’t deny that having superior talent give you an edge in winning. But I like the motto, “Because a mind is a terrible thing to waste.” when describing the type of work it takes to overcome your own limitations and getting past those “monster” hurdles.
Luckily UK is getting some of that superior talent lately and barring a few disenfranchised individuals most of them are not letting their mind waste. This team is good and is only a few “clicks” away from hurting somebody. The defense is clicking but misses a beat every so often because of injury reshuffling I feel.
Kentucky will beat South Carolina if they study their opponent to a man, from starter to backup. Anything that can give you that edge on gameday. Defensive guys, teach the o-line guys the tricks that Jimbo Teen is using to get past other guys.Anything that will give your team that edge on Saturday.
Vandy is in the same situation as UK. They have been the doormat and stepped on regularly on the way to some other teams glory. This year the SEC East teams don’t seem to be as scary as before, especially since we have guys that have stars upon their bellys just like those other Sneetches. These stars are not a result of the fix-it-up-chappie but a true leader and his staff. Just because our guys don’t start out with the stars they earn them by learning what Brooks and Co have got to teach and studying their opponent as determinedly as necessary.
I see no reason why UK can’t be 11-1 at the end of the season. I believe that every game that we lose I am going to be pissed off because I know someone or a few someones decided to take the day off when they should have been watching how that line pushes to the left 40% of the time and fakes it right on every third and short. Those are the percentages I want the players to know.
I’ve got to get off the soapbox now, especially since I don’t have the resources to study S Carolina’s past five games to see what can be done to wipe the smirk off of ol “Coach Superior”. And dinner is done. :)
Oh yeah, I also want you to believe that UK can end the season 11-1 too.
by bluecrip on Oct 6, 2008 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"Winnable games"
I certainly agree with your sentiments.
Two things, though: When I write something, either a comment or a post, I don’t take into consideration whether any of the athletes read what I write ( what I, or anyone else writes should have no bearing on how the players perform ). Secondly, I hope UK wins every game they play in every sport, but I’m realistic enough as a fan to know that there are some games that are loooong shots, at best, to be wins.
I hope dinner was good :)
by Ken Howlett on Oct 6, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
You said:
So we need to convert 3 out of the four games against USC, Arkansas, MSU and Vanderbilt, our most winnable remaining games, or pull an upset against Florida, Georgia or Tennessee. The first seems a lot more likely, although the ‘Cats have pulled off and upset of one of the SEC’s top teams in each of the last two years.
Frankly, right now I would look at USC and Vanderbilt as bigger challenges than Tennessee. I know I’m going against conventional wisdom, esp. considering that you guys have old ghosts to exercise against Tennessee, but have you seen the Vols play this year? They’re pretty bad. Not that we’re much better, but we do seem to be improving and the Vols seem to be regressing.
Based on what I’ve seen from Kentucky, you should def. handle Arkansas and MSU. The Bulldogs might give you a game, but they’re not very good. Arkansas is pathetic, even if they did play a decent game against Florida for three quarters. How debilitating must it be to realize you gave your best effort and lost 38-7?
I have no doubt the Cats will make a bowl this year. I just hope your next win doesn’t come against the Gamecocks.
Go Cocks!
by Gamecock Man on Oct 6, 2008 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Meant to say exorcise. Editing be damned!
Go Cocks!
by Gamecock Man on Oct 6, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Gamecock man
Tennesse may be an easier win than Vandy and USC this season. I just want to see better and more consistent offensive production against the upcoming SEC defenses. USC, Georgia and (dare I say) Vandy have defenses that are pretty stout. I really do not know what to expect because last season we had a great offense and a lot of veterans and went 3-5 in the SEC. Maybe it will be different this season becuase we have an SEC quality defense.
by SevenRings on Oct 6, 2008 10:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Every game is winnable this season
We were within a field goal of the best team in the SEC last weekend – on their home court. Any of a few small things – not fumbling and giving away an easy touchdown while throwing the football, falling on a fumble successfully, catching a pass thrown right on the numbers for a first down, not being totally out of position for a 78 yard run – any one of those could have given us the game. It was not one of the the 49-0 losses of yesteryear – does anyone remember those? Those were un-winnable games. These are very winnable.
Yes, Alabama didn’t play their best either, but teams don’t play their best every day, especially when pressed. There’s opportunity there.
We won’t bet the favorite, sure. But every game in the SEC is winnable for Kentucky this year, period. Heart, Confidence, Execution. That’s all we need. Oh yeah, and Health. 8’)
by EEWildcat on Oct 7, 2008 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Light red kidney beans cooked with hambone for 8 hours
cornbread and cabbage. Absolutely awesome meal.
Thanks Ken, I see how my idea went a bit askew there. I didn’t mean to suggest that we can’t write what we feel for fear of an athlete, or anyone else for that matter, taking what we say as an unanswerable fact thereby dissuading them from doing something positive. If anything, our opinions are warranted and healthy especially on forums such as these.
I was trying to make a correlation between how an athlete, coach or active participant in these contests we so love to witness, approaches them on a daily basis from game to game and how we as armchair coaches/quarterbacks approach them also. Simply crossing off a game as a loss seems unproductive. That has been the way at UK for too long. Even the national pollsters don’t get hyped about a near UK win. WIth the work Rich Brooks has done I believe it’s okay for us to consider every game winnable. I would even say UK could be Oklahoma, it would be damn tough, but there is a chink in their armor somewhere and with millions of rabid fans digging for it I imagine a few solutions could be brought up.
Nowhere in your post did you say that a game is unwinnable you merely suggested that to win certain games will require more than what we’ve seen by the Cats which I agree with entirely. That’s why I said I wasn’t trying to be cheeky and I wasn’t ripping your post.
Because there are so many readers here from different parts of the SEC and nation, I thought it would be interesting if I could encourage them to send in suggestions on how to stop the next opponent, just like the team does (I hope that’s what they do) and at the same time encourage a new attitude that is growing amongst the team. The attitude that realistically UK can win any game it plays and the odds of them winning are not long shots like in years past.
Like most everyone else here, I don’t get paid to scout nor do I have the resources or time to watch the last 8 games that Florida played in one week. But I have my fellow bloggers at A Sea of Blue who live in multiple geographical regions, who may get to see S Carolina/Georgia/Tennesee/Arkansas/Ole Miss games/highlights every week much to their consternation and may be familiar with the personnel and the tendencies of said team.
I live in Arkansas and come the week of the Arkansas game I want to try to give my views on how UK can beat them along with any insight I feel I may have on what the Cats need to do to better themselves. Right now I can tell you that if we harrass Dick and slow down Michael Smith we should put the game to rest around the end of 3 quarters and 28 points. Others may have seen the Hogs play and have ideas too. I haven’t had a chance to watch a USC game this year so I could be no help there. With the fanposts section folks could add video clips (sounds simple right?) showing, for example, how Georgia’s defense lines up on certain plays and how our offense can take advantage of it.
Not only are our friends who stop by, whether they be an athlete or gimped up fan, getting to hear our opinions on the state of the team but also what can be done in the upcoming game(s) that can aid them in winning. Meaning that we as fans can realistically go into each game expecting UK to win based on what we’ve scouted, cussed and discussed. This way, win or lose, we can also see what, if any, impact our work has on a game. Okay, not actual impact (no way to know without direct confirmation), but if we believe that on third and short we can get away with a screen pass against a defense that has shown tendencies to be susceptible to them, does UK try it? If not, what attempts did they employ? Were they successful? Notice most of my examples have been about opponent’s defense and ways for our offense can exploit them? I know we need a consistant one to show up soon or scouting be damned if we win again. It happens. It’s happened before. But I don’t want to think of this team as just another group of b-players in the path to another team’s glory as has happened in the past.
I may be going a little overboard with my armchair coaching and I surely don’t want to begin second guessing a veteran coach who (how does the quote go?) has, “…forgotten more about football than I’ve learned.” I am just curious if we see the same things when watching a game as the coaching staff and how close to our assessments the game plan actually unfolds.
You and Tru do wonderful jobs posting what you think are the keys to the game prior to kickoff, I just want to get others involved throughout the week too. :) I have found UK football more fun to get involved in when I can tell my deko operator with a straight face that her Gators better watch out because we’re going to beat them this year. I’m used to taking the ribbing from a loss but it’s been a while since I could actually suggest a UK victory without adding to the ribbing I’m already given. She admitted as much about her basketball team last year. How it was nice to say to a UK fan that their team was going to lose to her team. I told her not to get used to it. :) ha ha ahaha ha ha
GO BIG BLUE!!!
by bluecrip on Oct 7, 2008 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: bluecrip
I love your idea about contributors contributing info about opponents tendencies and other “inside info.”
Your thoughts on how coaches and athletes prepare and consider their opponents are interesting. I played high school athletics but nothing on the level of big time college sports, but I have known, and do know athletes who played in that type of environment, and I’ve read countless quotes from athletes regarding this subject; based on my experience I feel that these guys approach the games they play very similarly to fans ( except of course for the practicing ). They are people just like we are and they think the same things we think. An individual players confidence, it seems to me, is the driving force behind how a player feels about the next game; not all that different than the average fan.
My pity to you for having to work near a Gator fan, it must have been awful over the last three or four years. Nothing better than a UK clean sweep of the Gators – 1 in football, and 2 in basketball – to put a stop to the lunatic rantings of a Florida fan ( I’m only kidding, there are at least a couple dozen mindful Gator lovers around ).
by Ken Howlett on Oct 8, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UK cannot "be Oklahoma"
meant “beat Oklahoma”
by bluecrip on Oct 7, 2008 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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