Sagarin basketball ratings...oddness worth noting

by sylvar on Jan 23, 2008 10:47 AM EST Comment 3 comments

The full ratings are here:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc0708.htm

Here is Kentucky's Line:
Rank ELO_CHESS Predictor
122 173 73

First some definitions (I am paraphrasing):
Predictor: Most accurate number to look at when trying to see who will win in a matchup.

ELO_CHESS: Pure W-L Ranking

Rank: Avg. of ELO_CHESS and Predictor
I would say the avg difference between the ELO_CHESS and Predictor is around 20 (no math was done here...just looking through the numbers). Most teams are closer than that...the mean is probably closer to 10 or 12.

We have a 100 point disparity currently. Mostly due to having a losing record. SC has an 9-8 record and their ELO_CHESS is 93....one win makes a big difference. That Predictor number is much closer to what I think the team is at right now....And that is a bubble team number.
Now what we need to do is go out and win some road games. Georgia and Auburn are definately beatable teams, Then we get Bama at home. I am anxious to see how we play at Vandy...that one will be fun.
I am remembering the little video at Big Blue Madness where they ask the players who they wanted to beat the most....Seems like it was Vandy, Tennessee, Florida. So far they are 2 out of 3 on that list...better than expected I would say.

Then we get LSU on the road which should be a win. Then a 3 game home Stretch of GA,Ark,Ole Miss. Ark. and Ole Miss are tough games...But at least we get those teams at home. Given our recent home success against ranked teams I like our odds to take 2 of 3 in that stretch.

The final 3 games of the season are Tenn and SC on the road and Fla at home. Tenn. game will be a bellweather for the NCAA I think...Win that game and I think they are in. Fla. Game will be hard fought, but I think we take that one. Again, I like our odds to take 2 of 3 in that stretch.

Overall, I don't think its beyond reason to see us finish the season 9-3. That would be a final record of 17-12. Not Stellar...but not horrid.

I think that it goes without saying that we need a deep run in the SEC tournament to help wash away some of those early season losses, the way they are playing now I think they have a chance.

All I really want this year is a trip to the NCAA tournament....I think that is possible now, but there is still a lot of ball left to play.
OK...After the Georgia Game here is the line: br> Rank ELO_CHESS Predictor
90 126 61

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UK's future

I really like the way sylvar broke down the remainaing games.

I think I agree. 17-12 is certainly attainable. If UK finishes with 2 wins and a loss in the SEC Tournament, that makes them 19-13, BUT, they would be 8-2 in their last 10 games. Which would help the 'Cats cause.

It's weird to be discussing NCAA scenarios, when only a couple of weeks ago this team winning 15 games was a stretch.

But hey, I'll take it. I think they have turned the corner. Drilling S. Carolina will go a long way towards affirming my feeling.

by Ken Howlett on Jan 26, 2008 2:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Ken

What I think really helps us in that scenario is the name on the Jersey...When it comes right down to it the committee has in the past leaned toward bubble teams with strong fan bases...butts in the seats = $$$. thats not always the case, but it you look back you can see the trend there.

That would look to be a huge advantage for us....if we can do what needs to be done to be considered a bubble team.

Here's hoping we win the SEC tourney so we don't have to worry about such things!

by sylvar on Jan 28, 2008 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs