Mission Impossible: Growing a football program in the SEC
With all the pixels that have been darkened and unusual amount of deserved expectations received this year by the Kentucky Wildcat football team, there still remains one fundamental ... well, I hesitate to call it fact, so let's call it informed perception ... that is is impossible to grow a football team from the cellar to the top in the Southeastern Conference.
I use the word "impossible" advisedly. Just down Interstate 64 from Lexington lies a school who grew their program from a non-entity to a consistent contender for BCS bowls, so a reasonable question would be "why can't Kentucky?" That is a good question, and one I am prepared to attempt to answer.
Louisville grew up by taking advantage of what is universally thought of as a weak conference. Conference USA was (and to some extent, still is) little more than a loose confederation of good-sized schools who have nowhere else to affiliate. Louisville took a decision to grow their football team in that fertile soil, and they have -- spectacularly so. When the opportunity came for them to affiliate with the Big East, Louisville's football fortunes were greatly enhanced (arguably at the expense of basketball) by the additional exposure, and by clever marketing by their athletic staff (playing ESPN games at odd times, and so forth). The result is a nationally ranked team and an annual contender for the top of a middle of the road football conference.
The results of that effort are clear for everyone to see. So it would be reasonable to ask, "Why can't Kentucky duplicate that effort?" Kentucky receives more in funding from the state, has a much larger fan and alumni base, is a bigger school, and probably has more football fans. Why cannot Kentucky, with a commitment from the athletic department and determined efforts by the school, duplicate Louisville's success?
The answer, in this fan's mind, is simple. The Southeastern Conference.
Unlike conference USA, the Big East or even the Big Ten, there are not two or three dominant teams in the SEC. In a given year, there are no less than six or seven teams capable of winning the conference. The difference between the top four or five traditions in the SEC are not measured in bowl appearances, BCS or otherwise -- they are measured in the number of national and league championships in their trophy cases.
This creates a stratification in the SEC different from any other conference -- a huge, thick layer of "haves" at the top and a comparatively thin layer of "have nots" at the bottom, of which Kentucky is unfortunately one. No matter how good we are this year, even if we managed what every respectable football pundit considers impossible and win our division, it would be just as it was when we did it last time -- a flash in the pan.
For more proof, just examine this article by Stewart Mandel. He divides the BCS programs into Kings, Barons, Knights and Peasants. Notice that no less than six SEC programs are either Kings or Barons. They are not one step above Kentucky's Peasant program, but two. Heck, three more of the SEC programs are considered Knights. That leaves very few Peasants in the SEC.
Kentucky fans who know how to flip up their Big Blue shades occasionally know all this deep down. We refuse to give in to that reality because that's what fans do, and let's face it -- compared to many other teams outside the SEC, we have a very decent team, and a reasonably competitive program. If Kentucky were to join the Big East, or even the Big 10, we could instantly become at least a middle of the pack team almost every year. Obviously, in the Big 10 with it's two great powers it would be hard to win league championships, but Kentucky's odds would be infinitely greater even there than trying to fight through Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and Florida every year, not to mention rising Arkansas and South Carolina.
The soil of the SEC is about as fertile and friendly for growing a team as the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Desert -- those who wander in, never come out. So it is with the Kentucky football program. Why would highly-touted recruits prefer Kentucky over ... well, any of the top SEC programs? They don't, which is why we only have one 5-star player out of high school on our entire roster. But wait -- those ratings don't matter, you say. Outside the Sidelines has done a statistical study on just that fact, and believe me -- they do matter.
So why am I pouring cold water all over our suddenly trendy team? Sometimes we have to face the facts, and look at reality. Rich Brooks is proving to be a fine coach, but he is no Steve Spurrier, or Nick Saban, or Mark Richt. Kentucky has a fine team, but in a conference like the SEC, we still, with all our great players, have the potential to be a conference doormat -- and the odds are way better for our season to suck than for us to win even a division title. It isn't rah-rah, and it isn't happy, but it is reality. The players at virtually every top SEC school are better, top to bottom, than ours are. And when you say "top school" in the SEC, you mean at least five programs.
Does that mean we won't someday win a division, or even a league crown? No, of course not. We have done it before. I think we will go to our second bowl in a row this year, and we may upset one or two of the Great Powers getting there. But inevitably after a hot year or two, we sink back to a lower middle team, where we wander for years in the wilderness of mediocrity. Suppose we upgrade to where South Carolina is now -- mid-mediocrity. It is still mediocrity.
Can it end? Not in the SEC. Rich Brooks can upgrade our program only so much, just as you can grow things in the desert, but only with lots of water and care. But will we ever grow from a sapling to a mighty oak in football? Not in my lifetime. Not in this conference.

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Comments
Lifeteam
by davw83 on Aug 9, 2007 12:55 PM EDT 0 recs
Improvement
It will happen slowly and it will be the result of recruiting better and better players. It cannot happen if we decide to fire the staff every 3-6 years and start over. That is what got us to the bottom after the Bear left.
by Seymour on Aug 9, 2007 1:03 PM EDT 0 recs
I agree
by davw83 on Aug 9, 2007 1:05 PM EDT 0 recs
I love SEC football
Since 1976, SEC champions have come from only six of the twelve schools:
Alabama nine
Florida seven
Georgia five
Auburn five
Tennessee five
LSU four
Kentucky zero
Arkansas zero
Mississippi zero
Mississippi State zero
South Carolina zero
Vanderbilt zero
ALL PAC 10 teams have won a title since 1989 :
USC seven; with five in the last five years
Washington five
UCLA three
Oregon three
Washington State two
Stanford two
Arizona one
Arizona State one
Cal one
Oregon State one
I depsise the PAC 10. The point is, the SEC is a top heavy conference with its share of cupcakes; as many cupcakes as the other major conferences.
by Catfan on Aug 9, 2007 2:55 PM EDT 0 recs
I see your point ...
- Arkansas didn't join the SEC until 1991. Gamecocks, same.
- Arkansas has won 9 Southwest Conference championships, and 3 SEC West titles. Not bad for a
3. Notice that the Pac-10's lower tier teams still occasionally vie for a championship. We haven't seen that in the SEC for years. The last time one of Mandel's "Paupers" won was back in 1977, when UK did it. But if you go back to the 1960's, Ole Miss was competitive with all of them.
Our conference is top-heavy, but even the mid-tier teams would, in my opinion, be near the top of almost every other conference in America.
For more evidence, try this on for size.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 9, 2007 3:42 PM EDT
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Arkansas
by Catfan on
Aug 9, 2007 4:17 PM EDT
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S. Carolina
Spurrier is great, but USC is USC and they are a middle to lower tier team in any major conference.
Look, I love SEC football, but I am objective about this. The data does not lie.
by Catfan on
Aug 9, 2007 4:42 PM EDT
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That evidence
http://bestofsec.blogspot.com/2007/08/sec-king-of-conferences.html
is interesting. The data goes back too far and most of it is irrelevant. But what that evidence shows me the SEC is not as good as the Big 10, 1-A independents and only equally as good as the Big 12. The SEC is only marginally better than the ACC according to that "evidence" and given the new ACC, probally not as good.
I believe in the "sight test." What I see is that the SEC is as good and maybe a little better than the other major conferences the past couple years. However, the records show otherwise.
by Catfan on
Aug 9, 2007 4:26 PM EDT
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I'm sorry ...
I guess we'll just agree to disagree.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 9, 2007 4:31 PM EDT
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please help me
by Catfan on
Aug 9, 2007 4:44 PM EDT
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I'll be glad to ...
I don't accept your 2000-2005 data below. Too narrow of a time frame.
But anyway, I'll try my own set of stats on. From 1980-2006, here are the numbers:
Conference Win%
BigWest 96%
SunBelt 94%
MAC 86%
WAC 85%
CUSA 74%
MWC 69%
PAC-10 64%
SWC 63%
BigTen 62%
ACC 59%
BigXII 49%
BigEast 43%
I frankly think 26 years is more reasonable than the last 5.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 9, 2007 5:58 PM EDT
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Your kidding
For future reference, it would be helpful if you actually made a reference to what data you are showing. I assume you are showing the SEC's winning % against other conferences.
If that is the case you again prove the case that the SEC is not the bst conference but by your own #s they are the 3rd best.
By the way, 2000 - 2005 is 6 years. Any way you slice it, using your #s or mine, the SEC has no logical argument that they are the premier conference; not going back to 1980 and certainly not this decade.
I do believe the SEC has hired great coaches and they have an opportunity to seperate the conference from the other majors; only time will tell.
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 12:20 AM EDT
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OK
- The reference is made to winning % SEC vs. other conferences during the period between 1980 and 2006.
- Yes, I do. If we were just looking at "now", there is no doubt at all the SEC is the strongest conference.
- No, they aren't 3rd best. The fact that they have an under .500 winning % to two conferences isn't the whole story. If you look at historical data, only the Big Ten and Independents (useful only for comparison purposes) have a winning record against the SEC. In my sample, the Big 12 and Big East do. No commonality there. Also, you have to look at the BE and Big 12 conference against others. The BE, for instance, during that same time 1980-2006 time period, had loosing records against such worthies as the WAC, MWC (although just a few games there), Big 12, Big 10 and SWC. The Big 12 had loosing records against the Big Ten and the ACC.
- I am not interested in talking about recent events only. If you think history is irrelevant, fine, but that doesn't mean everyone else should. I'm not trying to make history either, or a scholarly paper. My quick look convinces me, but I am an SEC homer, and I'm perfectly OK with that. If you're skeptical, I can hardly blame you, but the argument you have put forward is less convincing (to me, at least) than my own.
- If you really want an exhaustive look at why the SEC is the strongest conference at the moment, you may visit Year 2's website and examine his analysis. I had no intention (and still don't) of going this far, but it deserves to be thrown into the mix if we are going to discuss this at length.
I prefer the historical argument, and based on history, both the SEC and Big Ten have a legitimate claim. Your mileage may vary.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 10, 2007 8:11 AM EDT
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Ignore the data if you want.
Funny thing is, the statistics you rely on prove my point even more. It isn't my job to educate you or anyone else on the #s, they stand on their own. You are not alone, most homers cloud objectivity with emotionalism and that is what being a fan is about I suppose.
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 8:21 AM EDT
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sight test
i don't know about the big 12, but what other big-time independents are there besides notre dame? i just think it's tough to compare a whole conference to one team (or even three teams, if there are some other indep.).
by UKWildCatFanatic on
Aug 9, 2007 5:07 PM EDT
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The SEC's place...
Conference W/L PF/Gm PA/Gm MOV
ACC 0.519 24.2 23.4 0.8
Big-12 0.515 24.8 25.8 -1
Pac-10 0.514 27 26.6 0.4
SEC 0.491 24.3 24.4 -0.1
Big-10 0.486 24.6 23.9 0.7
Big East 0.45 23.7 25.8 -2.1
The SEC has a losing record against non SEC, BCS schools. By the way.. the SEC is not even the best defensive conference. OK, last years data would have made the SEC a little better, but would not change the ranked results.
I think the SEC was by far the best conference last year, but year in and year out they are basically no better than the ACC, Big 12, PAC 10 and certainly not the ACC.
by Catfan on Aug 9, 2007 4:10 PM EDT 0 recs
If you ...
I find it amusing how many people want to pick certain time frames for statistical comparisons so that they can make their point. The justifications for using them are always fun to see.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 9, 2007 4:41 PM EDT
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This particular segment of time
by Catfan on
Aug 9, 2007 4:46 PM EDT
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I think it comes down to coaching.
by Catfan on Aug 9, 2007 4:12 PM EDT 0 recs
Even if they hired Spurrier ...
You could plug in Saban there as well, or Caroll or whoever you consider to be a "top tier" coach.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 9, 2007 4:43 PM EDT
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The only way
Number arguments aside conference vs conference the SEC would come out with the better record against every conference you can stack against it.
Now not being a huge football fan Im not exactly sure when this dominance of college football began but it seems to me like the SEC has always been a top conference and until recently (as in the past 2-3) seasons the SEC would have plenty of competition for the top spot especially from the Big Ten.
Now Catfan. Its clear your an ACC homer which I dont really get at all. I know plenty of Big Ten, Pac 10, and Big 12 football fans but I cant honestly say I have ever met a fan of the ACC.
I know you are only trying to defend your argument but given the chance I'm pretty sure you would try to argue that the ACC was created by God to be the best football conference in existence. Now I dont want to pick a fight but the haughtiness and arrogance really comes across in your writing and I dont really understand where it comes from seeing as how your an ACC football fan.
by davw83 on Aug 9, 2007 5:16 PM EDT 0 recs
ACC homer?
However, the #s don't lie. In this decade, the #s prove out the the ACC is now a better football conference than the SEC. The ACC has a 0.519 winning % against other BCS conferences while the SEC has a 0.491 percentage. In bowl games, the ACC has a significant winning % against the SEC.
I hope the SEC kicks the crap out of th ACC this year; but I won't bury my head in the sand and make illogical, faulty and factually incorrect claims such as the SEC is the best football conferences. If you all choose to ignore the #s so be it.
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 12:32 AM EDT
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Sounds familiar...
Then Billy Donovan came along. Three Final Fours, three title games and three championships later, the early nineties seem like an awfully long time ago.
And before you say it, yes, I agree that it's harder in football. And harder yet in the SEC. The chance for a lower tier football team to knock off a high-end team is slim. How many D-IAA (sorry, "FCS") teams knock off I-As? It's incredibly rare.
Does it seem so futile for South Carolina? They've been on an upward trend with Spurrier. Bring in a legendary coach and people take notice.
Anyway, I suppose I agree in principle but the spirit always says "Anything is possible" because amazing things do happen in college athletics.
by Gatorpilot on Aug 10, 2007 1:05 AM EDT 0 recs
I didn't realize Florida
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 8:23 AM EDT
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Basketball ...
Furthermore, we still don't know if Florida basketball just caught lighting in a bottle, like many others before. Time will tell that tale.
The idea that "anything is possible" isn't really assailed by my post anyway, GP. Perhaps the title threw you, but "Mission mostly impossible" or "Mission highly unlikely" just doesn't roll of the tongue, if you know what I mean.
Anyway, I am talking about consistently competing with the top of the league. I acknowledged and would continue to do so that, in any given year, it is possible for us to do so. But when you talk consistent excellence in the SEC, you are only talking about five or six teams.
South Carolina's upward momentum is only relative to their abject futility BS (before Spurrier). Yes, a legendary coach can improve a program to an astonishing degree. You can probably look out of your window and see that.
But even if South Carolina rises to the top of the SEC and stays there for the rest of the OBC's tenure (an eventuality very few outside the Palmetto State think is anywhere near likely), would that put them alongside Alabama, Georgia, Florida, or Auburn on a historical basis? Not in my mind.
Just as Florida's to national championships in basketball don't place it alongside UK, UCLA, Carolina, or Duke unless you look at a very narrow time frame.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 10, 2007 2:58 PM EDT
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Think
Sure you get the occasional conference challenge but it's never the whole league.
by davw83 on Aug 10, 2007 10:58 AM EDT 0 recs
Mentality Needs to change
The Tubby departure, and the search for a head coach reinforces this mentality. As long as the bball program is successful, fans are more accepting of a mediocre football team.
As long as Commonwealth is filled, why would the football program have an overhaul?
I hope this year isn't a step back, and I see it as a step back if they don't make a bowl. With this schedule, they will have to win some big games to make a bowl, so if they do, they've beaten some really good teams to get there. A bowl bid would be a step in the right direction, and hopefully some momemntum would be built.
by zach063 on Aug 10, 2007 11:02 AM EDT 0 recs
A bowl bid ...
Think about that for a minute. There are only three dates we can count as "sure" victories. We get Vanderbilt, what should be another highly likely victory, in an unusual state of quality at their place.
MSU at home for us is a reasonably likely win, but not one to bet your life on.
Even if we win those two, we still must beat one of the following to be bowl eligible:
Georgia (13) away
Arkansas (20) away
South Carolina away
LSU (2) at home
Florida (3) at home
Tennessee (15) at home
Louisville (11) at home
We haven't faced such a murderer's row in my memory. Getting to a bowl, any bowl, aught to be cause to celebrate as though we won the division championship. Even South Carolina, an arguably better team than us, would be unlikely to reach a bowl with our schedule and the two dates reversed.
Who, out of that last bunch, are we likely to beat? On paper, none of them. But beat at least one we must, two if we have a letdown against either MSU or Vandy.
I still think we can surprise at least one and possibly two teams at home. But avoiding that letdown against MSU or Vandy is going to be critical. It goes without saying that if we drop one of the lesser games, getting to a bowl becomes exponentially more difficult.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 10, 2007 3:14 PM EDT
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Schedule
I would hope after Spurrier's comments, that South Carolina can be beaten. But then again, Spurrier owns the Cats!!
by zach063 on
Aug 11, 2007 11:16 AM EDT
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I think ...
But you are right, we must avoid the letdown, and pull a couple of upsets. We have a team talented and deep enough to do it, but that doesn't make it any less daunting.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 11, 2007 5:19 PM EDT
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UF BB Championships?
by Seymour on Aug 10, 2007 12:06 PM EDT 0 recs
2, not 3...
And yeah, when you win 100% of your Final Four games, you start to think an F4 appearance = lock for the title game. :)
But I meant not to hijack Tru's thread and topic, which I think is an interesting one. Let's leave Florida basketball for another time.
The "fertile soil" analogy is a good one although the flip side to that coin is you don't really know how good teams like Louisville really are. I had the feeling of "sham" all year long when I watched the Cards and when Rutgers beat them, magical though it was, I knew they'd wilt up and die playing an SEC schedule. I don't care how good of a coach Schiano is, Rutgers had no business beating Louisville on paper. Their players are all running in slow motion by comparison to SEC teams. In fact I can't even tell the difference in appearance from a Rutgers safety vs. a CB vs. a linebacker. They all look like the same exact guy.
Then Louisville gets Wake Forest in their BCS bowl game, a moderately good team from a really bad conference, so despite the win that wasn't much of a comparo either.
The Cards only made it to that #3 spot based on preseason rankings and an easy schedule. They'd be competitive in the SEC, but around the USCe/UK range right now in terms of winnable games.
That said, I'd love to see Kentucky give the shaft to Louisville because I hate those Big East pretenders! Go Cats.
by Gatorpilot on Aug 10, 2007 4:43 PM EDT 0 recs
Louisville
Outside of LSU there is no dominate team in the SEC this year. UF lost too many players and if they go 9-3 I would say that is a great year.
You SEC homers are about as objective as Ann Coulter. Louisville was and is again a blazing fast team that could run with anyone in the SEC. I can't stand UL and Petrino is a scumbag in my opinion but they are talented and fast (but with Petrino gone, it wont last long).
Top to bottom, the SEC has no more speed than the PAC 10, Big 12, ACC or Big 10. Yeah you homers will point to one or two games, but again, it is silly fanspeak.
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 5:36 PM EDT
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Catfan, you need to stick to basketball...
Louisville is a reasonably quick team. They are not, nor were they, blazing fast. They had fewer 4.5 guys than Florida, USCw, and LSU last year. Far fewer. They had a great Xs and Os coach who was totally shut down by a team with talent which was so vastly inferior, in theory anyway, to the point they had almost zero second half yards. They beat a decent ACC team, Wake Forest, 24-13 in a bowl game.
In 2005, still playing that terrible Big East schedule, same coach, same QB, they lost to South Florida (45-14!), @ WVU, and to 2-loss Va Tech team after holding a lead in the 4th quarter.
In their 2006 regular season schedule, Louisville played three ranked teams! Three! Guess who won of 'em was? #17 Miami on their way to a 7-6 season. Rutgers and West Virginia were the other two, both legitimate Top 25 teams, although Rutgers really wouldn't have a prayer of beating top SEC teams. That leaves #18 Wake Forest in their BCS bowl game.
I just can't get too worked up over that one either. Wake Forest won the weakest ACC race in memory, with both FSU and Miami barely holding on to winning season, both playing in chumpish bowl games.
In my view the only legitimate powerhouse they played was West Virginia, which is also mildly debatable, but no question they're really good. And they lost that one.
Three ranked teams in their regular season, two losses!
You think Louisville would be second in the SEC this year?! Florida has destroyer status, Tennessee starts a senior QB who is a dark horse Heisman candidate, and even Georgia and USCe have QBs which have all the potential to be studs this year. You think Louisville could beat Auburn?! Alabama? (Maybe Alabama. We'll se how Mr. Saban does. But I doubt it.)
Dude, the bottom line is that your assertion on this topic is flat out insayyyyyyyyyynne, my man. Seriously. I trust you on hoops. When it comes to the gridiron, trust me. Louisville would not have a freakin' prayer against the SEC's top drawer teams. Not a freakin' prayer.
by Gatorpilot on
Aug 10, 2007 9:50 PM EDT
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UL Football
UL has beaten only 2 top tier teams in the last 10 years: WEST VIRGINIA, last year. WVU had, what, 7, 8 turnovers. Slaton had 6 fumbles, 6!(He injured his wrist/hand early in the game. Given all this UL still only won by 14, at home. FLORIDA ST. a few years ago in a monsoon. Florida St. wasn't really Florida St. Chris Rix at QB, the worst QB at FSU since the Nixon administration. No appreciable running back. That season was the beginning of the end of Seminole glory.
I will give UL credit. They have a very talented quarterback, and two NFL-type receivers in Douglas and Urrutia. Anthony Allen is a talented back who should have a productive year, but their defense isn't top tier quality, (See Notre Dame). I question, once the local talent leaves, how successful Kragthorpe will be in luring elite recruits to the 'Ville. Only time will tell.
by Ken Howlett on
Aug 10, 2007 10:20 PM EDT
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I agree
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 10:57 PM EDT
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You are a homer
Fewer 4.5 guys? Did you get out your stop watch and time them all? Speed is proven on the field and those rat bastards at Louisville have proven it. God Florida fans are the most arrogant, illogical and emotionally based football fans ever. I guess it is from years of being the little brother program in the state of Florida.
I never said Lousiville played a tough schedule. But at least they schedule Miami. The SEC is full of teams that duck tough nonconference competition. When has Georgia ever played a national power outside of the SEC? How about Tennesee; they step outside the SEC to play the VERY overrated Notre Dame but that is it, they run from tough competition. At least Florida plays FSU but they too rarely step outside the SEC. Other than FSU Florida hasn't played a decent nonconference team in five years (i think it was Miami in a home and away for two years where Florida was embarrased both games).
Florida is good program obviously but this year they are likely to lose 4 maybe 5 games. UF are paper champions incapable of going undefeated and winning a legit championship (and don't say that it is impossible for an SEC school to end the year undefeated. LSU has done it, UT has done it, Auburn has done it but Florida cannot, has not and will not). You Florida fans are laughable and need to realize you are the #3 program in Florida as Miami and FSU have legit, multiple championships.
Dude, take your commentary to a Florida blog so other blind, emotional and arrogant Florida fans can give you the ignorant affirmation you need.
by Catfan on
Aug 10, 2007 10:54 PM EDT
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Catfan, you continue to prove my earlier point...
Florida plays Miami again in 2008.
Georgia starts their regular season against a good Big 12 team, Oklahoma State.
Tennessee gets to play Cal (#12) in Berkeley, CA and played them last year in Knoxville.
SEC teams will also play 2x national champion FSU (#21) -- not just Florida, but Alabama too -- Virginia Tech (#9), Missouri, who some say will win their conference this year, West Virginia (#6), UNC (Butch Davis!), Clemson, and of course Louisville (#11).
You think that's a weak OOC schedule on top of six top 20 teams IN THE CONFERENCE? What do you want this league to do, schedule NFL teams?
Re: Louisville's speedsters. Time them? No, I read their scouting report. You can too, you know. Scout.com and Rivals.com gives you forty-yard dash times, stats, etc. Try it sometime, it's not just for basketball.
Nobody who knows anything about college football thinks Louisville is a serious contender in 2007. They were pretenders last year. The only ranked teams they beat were Miami and Wake Forest! They lost to Rutgers and WVU! Seriously, man, wake up!
If you think Florida is going to lose 4 or 5 games landscape in 2007, you're dreaming. Listen, I get paid to write about the SEC and I don't wear the Gators hat when I type those posts up. I picked LSU to win the conference, Florida to win the East and both to face off for a second in time in Atlanta. Florida will probably lose 1-3 games in '07, possibly two of them to LSU, who I think will play for a national championship.
This commentary will remain here at ASeaofBlue.com as long as Truzenzuzex and JL Blue will have me. You will have to use logic, rather than mudslinging, to defeat me. And being that you have been incapable of doing so thus far, I predict it will not happen.
by Gatorpilot on
Aug 10, 2007 11:11 PM EDT
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Miami
Trumpeting N. Carolina as a quality pre-conference opponent does not help your cause in this debate. UNC, with JC as head coach, and Lombardi as O-Coordinator, still would be relegated to the bottom of a weak ACC.
These comments are not intended to be apart of the Gatorpilot v. Catfan extravaganza.
by Ken Howlett on
Aug 10, 2007 11:34 PM EDT
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Why UK Will Beat Florida
by Ken Howlett on
Aug 11, 2007 12:05 AM EDT
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Where?
by Gatorpilot on
Aug 11, 2007 9:14 AM EDT
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Gatorpilot
by Ken Howlett on
Aug 11, 2007 9:47 AM EDT
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Oh, that...
In all seriousness I am sure our Gators won't be taking UK lightly. If UK brings their A game and Florida doesn't, UF could lose.
How hard is it to get tickets for this game, do you think? I like to go to at least one, preferably two away games per year (not including UF vs. UGA in Jacksonville.) I've never seen a game in Commonwealth, which seems like a cool stadium.
by Gatorpilot on
Aug 11, 2007 9:56 AM EDT
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Tcikets
They have moved the "ticket sellers" away from the stadium a couple of hundred yards, but they can be found.
IF UK hasn't lived up to expectations prior to the UF game, tickets will be relatively easy to come by.
As far as the game is concerned, I feel this is UK's best opportunity to beat Florida in several years. Finding new and unusual ways to lose games seems to be the demon that haunts UK when it comes to playing Tennessee, and Florida. This fact is a high hurdle to overcome. Believing is the hardest part. This group seems to be a confident bunch, though, so hopefully they won't wilt under pressure if the game is close in the 4th.
UK has had trouble containing QB's in the mold of Tebow, Nickson of Vandy comes to mind. With Steve Brown running the D, pursuit ,not hitting a spot, will be the impetus of the D. Whether this change in philosophy will result in positive results remains to be seen.
by Ken Howlett on
Aug 11, 2007 10:22 AM EDT
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It depends a bit ...
If we have 3 wins only at that point, there should be plenty available. If we have 4, they will be available, but less so. 5, and you will probably have a tough time, but could find some with determined effort.
More than 5, forget it. We would be somewhere we haven't been in 30 years. :-)
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 11, 2007 10:26 AM EDT
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Whoever pays you to write
Son, you are going to have to come up with something better than that to keep up. The whole country knows the SEC tradtionally avoids playing OOC powerhouses (ok, UF plays their instate rivalry FSU whahoo).
You might want to read more carefully; I never said Louisville would compete for the National Championship. I know this, they have enough talent to beat any other team in the very overrated SEC.
by Catfan on
Aug 11, 2007 1:56 PM EDT
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Dad-dad-daddyo
Yes, I think in a conference which already features 6 Top 20 teams, bringing in the aforementioned list of teams is pretty ballsy. These are all programs which have a justifiable chance to win a lot of games. Pretty much every team in the country plays at least two cupcake games per year, some play three. A schedule including those games is nothing specific to the SEC.
In 2008 Florida will play their regular SEC murderer's row schedule plus FSU AND Miami. Another key component of the SEC's superiority is the SEC Championship game... another rung on the ladder which must be climbed to gain access to the BCS title game.
It's easy to be called a homer when you write about the nation's deepest and toughest conference. Yes, I believe that about the SEC. I would believe it even if I covered the Big 12 or the Pac-10. It is the toughest conference in the country. (Haven't you seen the front of Phil Steele's SEC rag?) And most media types actually agree with that.
I am quite capable of reading your words carefully; I have done that. But you don't seem to understand what you're saying. When you suggest that Louisville has enough talent to beat any team in the "overrated SEC" you're saying they could beat LSU, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Georgia.
Please excuse me while I choke down a belly laugh. There is no basis whatsoever for this theory.
In 2005 and 2006, Louisville LOST to teams which would not be able to come close to competing in the ultra-competitive SEC. I've already explained that twice and you still haven't listened, so I won't repeat it.
In 2007, the genius wondercoach is in Atlanta, scratching his head and wondering how to handle Vick's dogfighting mess (and probably wishing he was back at Louisville.)
Nobody thinks Louisville will be BETTER this year. They will be lucky if they're nearly as good as they were last year, and I don't think they will be. And last year, they only logged two good wins all year, and one of them was against Miami... who sucked.
Catfan, it's well and good to have opinions. Everyone has them. I have no problem with that. It's when you try to assert an opinion which is not founded in any basis of fact that the necks of those who know better get hot.
I urge you to consider these words, really deeply and carefully read and analyze them, before you reply again. And please, limit your response to some sort of factual rebuttal, not a vapid regurgitation of that which you've said thrice already.
Good luck.
by Gatorpilot on
Aug 11, 2007 3:42 PM EDT
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Once again you failed...
You are simply wrong that the SEC is the deepest toughest conference. You emotional homers say this every year but the data proves otherwise.
You stated, "you try to assert an opinion which is not founded in any basis of fact." WRONG. You are not paying attention or you choose to ignore MY STATEMENTS OF FACT. In this decade, the SEC has a losing OOC record against BCS schools. That is a fact, and it is the most telling data on the SEC football myth.
Oh and there is much more. This decade there have been 7 national champions; the SEC has 1.5 of them. Hardly impressive of the "toughest conference." Of the last 20 National Champions 4.5 of them have come from the SEC; that is not impressive of what you call the "toughest conference." Hell, the ACC has 5.5 of the last 20 and the Big 12 has 6.
Once again I have used objective data and facts to prove you and the other SEC homers wrong. You on the other hand have provided no data to support your argument.
However, I am here to help; you certainly need it. Maybe you should go the route the SEC is deeper therefore better. Although making the case that since USC and UK are better than Baylor and Texas Tech (which may not even be true) the SEC must be better is pure foolishness. Or a better idea, maybe you should argue which conference has the most current NFL players.. now that is something you can run with and will help your misguided, emotional and unsubstantiated opinion.
Thank me later for the help, if you are still unable to make a rational, educated argument supported by facts and data, I will again be willing to help you.
by Catfan on
Aug 11, 2007 11:21 PM EDT
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With all due respect ...
This argument doesn't prove your case. You are deliberately (or maybe just accidentally) selecting a period of time that supports your argument, and ignoring the rest of history. Is this your definition of logic?
And if you confine your argument to the last 20 years, the SEC has a winning record against every other conference in the nation except the Big East, and it is .500 against them.
You see, you can pull out stats from periods in history which back up your point, but surely you can't be seriously suggesting they are dispositive.
They aren't.
by Truzenzuzex on
Aug 12, 2007 12:35 AM EDT
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lack of championships
- this lack of championships mentioned...couldn't that be because of the depth of the SEC. we all beat each other up during conf. play that no one can make it out without a loss or two. i would assume there is at least one team this year that plays all the of the SEC's top 20 teams. if that team is florida, or lsu, or UK, that is a killer schedule that would make it really tought to come out of undefeated.
- this whole thing about being a homer. i understand that we aren't all as objective as we probably should be, but when did being a homer equate you with being wrong? i've been a UK homer my whole life...i was right in 96, 98, and will be in the near future. damn, there's that homerism rising up again. GatorPilot, while not objective here (but why would you be, right?) has been on a damn good run the last couple years in terms basketball and football. just because someone thinks their team is going to do well doesn't make them a homer necessarily.
by UKWildCatFanatic on
Aug 12, 2007 1:46 AM EDT
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You're still way off base.
First of all, as Tru has already correctly noted, the SEC has a perfectly fine all-time OOC record.
In fact, it's better than fine. The SEC has one of the best OOC BCS, non-BCS Div-1A, and Div-1-AA (sorry, FCS now) records in the country.
How do I know?
Because I research facts, rather than make them up, as you've apparently done.
Here's a sample set from 1995-2005 (does not include 2006, which would actually favor the SEC further.)
This table shows wins and losses of BCS teams vs. non-conference BCS opponents.
Conference W/L PF/Gm PA/Gm
Big-12 0.572 29.1 24.8
SEC 0.566 26 22
Big East 0.562 27.3 23.7
Pac-10 0.561 28.9 25.7
ACC 0.554 26.2 23.3
Big-10 0.553 27.5 24.3
What's interesting is that in fact, all of the BCS conferences are pretty close. A win average of .572 to .553 separates the best from the worst.
The SEC is not the highest scoring conference (26) but it does allow the fewest total points (22) by far. This is in direct contrast to the Pac-10 (high scoring, no defense.) Pretty much supports the stereotype.
But let's take it a step further and look at overall winning percentages. This includes ALL games -- including in-conference, bowl games, BCS bowls, etc.
From 1996-2006 (one year skewed from the prior example):
SEC:
Georgia 76.19%
Florida 74.60%
Tennessee 74.60%
LSU 69.36%
Auburn 67.74%
Arkansas 58.20%
Alabama 54.92%
Mississippi 54.62%
South Car 46.15%
Miss State 42.34%
Kentucky 39.66%
Vanderbilt 26.55%
Pac-10:
Southern Cal 72.0%
Oregon 67.21%
UCLA 61.16%
Oregon State 57.5%
Arizona State 55.37%
Washington St 55.09%
Washington 51.26%
California 49.15%
Arizona 45.3%
Stanford 40.71%
Big Ten:
Ohio State 77.60%
Michigan 77.42%
Wisconsin 70.01%
Penn State 61.16%
Purdue 60.48%
Iowa 53.72%
Minnesota 52.83%
Michigan St 51.26%
Northwestern 41.18%
Illinois 33.91%
Indiana 30.97%
Now, pay careful attention, Catfan. Do you see the massive drop-off in the Pac-10 and Big Ten from the top teams to the bottom?
If you break these down into "tiers", you'll see that the SEC's first tier, second tier, and third tier brackets all have higher winning percentages than their brethren. In other words, from the top of the cnference to the bottom, the SEC wins more games every year.
Now, back to my original point, since you unwisely attempted to shift focus away from Louisville and talk about how "overrated" the SEC is.
Louisville plays in the Big East, which is one of the two weakest conferences in the BCS right now along with the ACC.
Yes, I know the Big East won all their bowl games in the 2006 season. I don't care, it's a sham... look at the matchups they drew! Louisville got Wake Forest, Cincinnati got Western Michigan, South Florida played East Carolina, Rutgers drew Kansas State, and West Virginia got a terrible Georgia Tech team with Reggie Ball flinging more picks than completions (and still barely won, 38-35.)
You're telling me Louisville would come into the SEC (which as you have now been factually informed, is NOT overrated) and take over the #2 slot?
There is no evidence to suggest this.
None.
The Big East is weak. The bowl wins are beyond weak. (East Carolina? Western Michigan?) Louisville played four ranked teams and lost to two of them -- their best wins were over Miami and Wake Forest. Miami sucked and Wake Forest prevailed at least in part due to the overall weakness of both FSU and Miami, the traditional powers in the ACC.
Louisville does not have the speed of SEC teams, especially on defense. You honestly think that those kids wouldn't be road-graded in the SEC?
They would be.
It would not be pretty.
I'd say 'trust me,' but I don't have to. The facts speak for themselves.
I am looking forward to your reply.
by Gatorpilot on
Aug 12, 2007 5:15 PM EDT
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Your argument is laughable.
Thank you for the data because what you have proven is the SEC is average among BCS conferences.
The facts and data don't lie, you are wrong and again. Funny thing is, you proved your own point wrong.
Please someone else chime in, I am dealing with a light weight and it is getting boring.
by Catfan on
Aug 12, 2007 5:46 PM EDT
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