2006-2007: A Quick Look Back

by Glenn Logan on Jun 10, 2007 7:32 PM EDT in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball

I noticed that Double-T Nation, the Texas Tech SB Nation site, just looked at the rankings of its opponents for last year and applied it to this year's schedule. I want to just look back at last year and get your opinions on next year. This data is from Ken Pomeroy's site:

Our overall strength of schedule was #1 among all division 1 colleges, but not just that -- our opposition had the overall best offense and overall best defense as well! Compare to UCLA, for example, who played the second best overall offense, but only the 10th best overall defense.

Next, let's look at our non-conference ranking:

Notice that virtually all the schools above us are "mid-major" programs who often wind up as early games on the schedule of top teams.

Say what you want about the Wildcats last year -- we simply took on all comers, and the comers we took were the best in the land, overall. And also notice that only one other SEC team joined us in the top 10 -- Bruce Pearl's Tennessee team.

Anyone notice conspicuous absences from the top ranks of either group? If you said "Louisville" and "Florida", you win the prize. Louisville's NC schedule weighed in at a pasty 152nd, and Florida an anemic 145th.

Seems the apple doesn't fall far from the tree in terms of scheduling, either, when it comes to Billy D. and Ricky P. Who knows, maybe they know something that Tubby Smith never learned? Our team seemed to show signs in the soft, early part of our conference schedule after the brutally tough NC schedule we played. But that success simply didn't hold as the road got tougher.

Personally, I like that we play a tough non-conference schedule, and I don't subscribe to the theory that you should Twinkie up early for success later on. But then again, I am not a coach, and nobody can say that we were as successful last year, in the end, as either Florida or Louisville.

So what's your opinion? Should we soften up our schedule, or keep it tough? Was last year's schedule just too much beef and not enough bun, or was it just right?

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Schedule

In my opinion, a tough early season game gives us a good chance to find out what our team is all about.

I think it generates a much more exciting atmosphere that makes it more enjoyable to watch. Especially when we come out as the victor, Louisville #4 in '05, though it turned out they weren't really all that great.

I think it helps our tournament resume significantly if we come out on top in those types of games.

However on the down side, its a tougher team, so that precious "W" could be harder to come by, and hurt us if we don't get it.

But in the end, I think a tough schedule pays off come tournament time.

by nt37wildcats on Jun 10, 2007 8:03 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

with the comment above. A tougher schedule can make or break us, but if it wasn't for our S.O.S. the past couple of years, we might not have been seeded as high as we were in the tournament (granted, an 8 seed isn't really high).

I think it's better to be tested early than to be suddenly thrown into the lion's den of SEC competition.

by Carissa on Jun 10, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions

I think ...

you are both right, but that's just me.

I can see the other argument as well. I guess I just love the idea of "Taking all comers."

by Glenn Logan on Jun 10, 2007 10:12 PM EDT reply actions

I disagree

While playing a strong schedule does, theoretically, show you waht your team is made of, you can lose the "perceptions" game when those close losses aren't wins.

Obviously, if you win all those tough games, the point is moot. But not every team is made equal, and just because the 2003 team was able to catch fire and topple a good schedule doesn't mean that another team will.

In my opinion, Tubby over-scheduled, especially the cupcake portion fo the schedule. Fans love to see good teams -- Umass and Miami (OH) were both good teams by year's end -- in Rupp, but there's something to be said for going 13-1 instead of 11-3.

Truthfully, it's sort of a crapshoot. Who knew two years ago if half those teams would be strong?

I still think there's a middle ground between a Syracuse schedule and what we went through last year.

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Jun 10, 2007 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

gotta do it

we have to have the tough schedule. i believe it defines the team. as a coach you should be able to teach through the adversities. the nba doesn't allow you to schedule "cupcake" games. sure there are some teams that are struggling and you may not prepare for as hard but you have to play all of them before the playoffs. why delude these college players into thinking that you can prepare them for the big time when the talent you play against on your schedule doesn't reflect that? no, i don't buy the idea that we should soften up the schedule any.
i feel that there should be more early season tourney's so that more mid-major and "big" teams can compete against one another. there is plenty of space on cable, satellite programming to allow airtime for them. sponsors would be easy to find. it might take away some home game revenue with a game for game rule prohibiting the tourney to count as one game and making each game played count against the regular season limit. barring that it would be huge for all teams involved. the "big" schools would get to play a tournament style scenario against a possible first/second round NCAA Tourney matchup early in the season. you can keep your home and home's with state u and deepwoods tech promoting state rivalry's and bragging rights. also, i love the idea of the super small schools getting the exempt games spots. especially since they get to come to Rupp to play a college ball game. most of those kids don't get to play inside someplace that big too often.
I know you need tune-up games for sure but let's not forget that the players need to compete against the best to effectively evaluate their performance against top tier players and teams. typically the best players and teams are playing late in march.

by bluecrip on Jun 11, 2007 4:00 AM EDT reply actions

NBA

The nba doesnt allow you to schedule cup cake games? Do you watch the same NBA I do? Half the teams in the league are cupcake games if your team is half way decent.

by davw83 on Jun 11, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

especially

if you play in the eastern conference...then you get to play all those crappy teams 4 times instead of twice like the western confence gets to. and you only have to play western conference teams twice.

and for the record, i'm a huge bulls fan, so this isn't some conference bias.

GO BIG BLUE!! GO BIG BLUE!!

by UKWildCatFanatic on Jun 11, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Good post...

Florida's non-con schedule drives us a little crazy. It is an annual subject of discussion on Gatorcountry.com and Gatorsports' message boards. Our athletic dept. has tried to schedule home and away series with many big name teams who just aren't interested in playing Florida, including Duke and UNC. These teams don't want to give up a home game to come play us. There's a faction of Gator fans who believe they're scared to play Florida, but I don't truly believe that is the case. In college basketball, it's hard to arrange home and away series with teams who rely on their hoops revenue as their primary sports income. It'd be like recent football power Louisville trying to draw Florida to play at Papa John's stadium. Louisville is a worthy foe, but Florida would never give up a home game in the Swamp (along with the 90,000+ tickets sold) just to go play Louisville, even if the Cards agreed to come to the Swamp the following year.

This is a case of scheduling woes and the benjamins. I would love to see Florida play a stronger non-con schedule and it is certainly not for lack of trying.

Orange & Blue Hue http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Jun 11, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

Fair enough ...

But I am not quite sold on the idea that Florida tries all that hard. I am quite positive, for instance, that Pitino deliberately keeps his non-conference schedule weak to a certain extent. I can't imagine why somebody like Michigan State wouldn't want to schedule a neutral site game a la the "BasketBowl" they played with UK some years ago.

I know money is a strong factor, but with Florida's recent success, you would think some of the other strong teams would give their eye teeth to play the national champs in a home-and-home. Maybe not UNC or Duke, but maybe IU, MSU or Pitt. I know Louisville had one with you before you became a national powerhouse. I wonder what ever happened to that?

by Glenn Logan on Jun 11, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Ayuh

It is probably easier now with Florida's recent national success. However my understanding is that scheduling the sort of series Florida wants -- which is home and away, not merely to show up at UNC or Duke's doorstep to play them in their arena -- is many years out. Maybe this sort of scheduling can start to happen soon.

As far as Louisville goes, we did have a single home and away with them. I don't know if there was enough interest on either side to keep it going as a series. I would love for Florida to get a few biggies each year to play in a regular rotation. Those are hard plums to pluck, however. Florida usually plays in one good tournament (ala Las Vegas last year) and has one good non-con opponent prior to conference play (Ohio State last year and upcoming.) However, we do want more and it is a reasonable criticism to have of Florida from afar. I know for a fact that the UAA and the coaching staff wants a better non-con schedule for the basketball program. And for us fans, it's awfully hard to get excited about playing Jacksonville in December.

Florida beat enough "non-conference" opponents last year to more than make up for it -- they just all happened to come along in the NCAA tournament. :)

Orange & Blue Hue http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Jun 11, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

All of this is true....

but also consider that if we have an off night and end up losing to a team like Western Illinois then that could end up hurting us much more than losing to...say....Butler, UMass, or South Alabama. Also, let's consider for the sake of discussion, the advantages to building confidence in your teams; something that Mr "Strength of Schedule" Tubby Smith never seemed to do very well with. Momentum and confidence are two very good things to have on your side going into conference play.

by blueblood on Jun 11, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

What I do know ...

is that when we had good NC results, we knew we had a good team. If we came out of the NC schedule with 3 or more losses, we most likely wound up as a so-so team.

I like knowing where we are, but it's hard not to consider the advantages of an early feast. Last year, if we had played a couple of Twinkies instead of the Maui invitational, we most likely would have had only one NC loss (UNC), and maybe a more confident team.

But I'm not sure confidence trumps being battle-tested. It is an argument that has merits on both sides.

by Glenn Logan on Jun 11, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed for the duality...

but I'm not sure that I'd say that we shouldn't have played the Maui tourney. I know that the W/L results didn't look so good, but if you watched the game you knew that UK had a good chance of beating UCLA and the Memphis loss was due to physical conditioning moreso than the actual talent of the teams. Overall if I were in the selection committee, I would have considered UK favorably just for the UCLA game itself. That was probably one of the best preseason NC games I've seen in a while, we just didn't come out on top.

by blueblood on Jun 11, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

same nba dave

dave,

yes i watch the same nba that has hundreds of PROFESSIONAL players. the team they play for may be crappy but that doesn't mean the players suck. take the trailblazers (west conf!!!) and they (suck)could beat this years and last years natl champ gators. just because a college team has nba talent doesn't mean it has nba experience.

also, what is your definition of halfway decent? this years national chapions (spurs) lost a few games to your "cupcake" teams during the regular season. i would say that they are more than halfway decent, what the rockets? are they halfway decent? the mavs? they got blown out in the first round of playoffs to a halfway decent golden state team.

so, no there are no "cupcake" games in the nba dave.

sorry gatorpilot, the above mentionioning about your team losing to the blazers may irritate you but deep down i'm sure you know it to be true. hell, i'd even go on to say that the blazers would beat the 96 Wildcats. that's just because nba players don't have the same responsibilities as college players and they bang up agains the best night in and night out twice as many times as a college player through a season.

by bluecrip on Jun 11, 2007 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

nba

What does the worst NBA team being able to beat the ncaa national champs have to do with anything? Your arguments are hard to follow.

Any playoff team is decent. The blazors arent so much but the cupcake schedule only pertains to other nba teams not college. There are plenty of cupcake games in the nba. Who said anything about the players. if your teams sucks relative to other teams in your league than there are indeed some cupcake games even if the good team losses c couple of them because they play so often. You have to think in terms of series becuase there are so many games no just individual win losses when considering NBA schedules.

by davw83 on Jun 11, 2007 7:00 PM EDT reply actions