Anticipation is making me wait ... It's keeping me waaaaiiiitiinnng...

by Glenn Logan on Mar 21, 2007 7:02 AM EDT in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball

So can we get on with it, already?

Geez, the more time it takes for Tubby Smith and Mitch Barnhart to have their little "Come to Jesus" meeting, the more weird the world gets. Anxiety in the Big Blue Nation is reaching the point to where metaphysics suggests that we will begin seeing some displacement of the time-space continuum. Want proof? Here it is: the Courier-Journal placed this article in their SEC-UK section of their on-line edition, and when you see that, can the apocalypse be far behind? [editor's note, by Truzenzuzex] If this has been moved before you read this, you have only yourself to blame, :-)

So what is happening in the Big Blue Underverse today? Well, lots of people are thinking Michigan -- Tubby Smith to Michigan, that is. Not only are they thinking it, but they are actually writing it down:

If I was Michigan athletic director Bill Martin, I would place a call to Lexington, Kentucky and see if I could interview Tubby Smith for my basketball head coaching vacancy.

If I was Tubby Smith, I would want to take that phone call.

That's our favorite pizza pitch man, Dickie V., writing on ESPN in his happy little section.

But wait, there's more:

Here is how ESPN.com's Andy Katz's sized up the Michigan opening: "Kruger, West Virginia's John Beilein (even with the big buyout), Vanderbilt's Kevin Stallings, Kentucky's Tubby Smith (if they offered), all make too much sense for Michigan. We'll see if they go in that direction. Remember, football is king here and the hoop coach won't make more than Lloyd Carr.

So can Tubby Smith live on the paltry salary he would likely get at a football school like UM? We may never know.

NCAA Hoops Today links us, so we link them right back with thanks, also because it is directly relevant to the conversation:

The biggest story so far (off the court) is the situation at Kentucky and Michigan. A Sea of Blue has a nice story recapping reaction from fans and media on the Kentucky front ...

My opinion: At the start of the season I thought this was a non-issue, but as things developed during the season, I am now starting to think that it might be in the best interest of both Tubby and Kentucky if they go their separate ways. Tubby could become the next Izzo or Gary Williams at a place like Michigan or Tubby can give the NBA a shot because the last time Tubby coached NBA players (1998 Kentucky) he won the national title...

Interesting. Seems the "M" word is coming up more and more in sports punditdom -- will Tubby listen?

Meanwhile, Maize 'n Brew, a fellow SportsBlog member, wants Tubby bad, and handicaps his chances:

Tubby Smith, University of Kentucky

Rumor Mongerer: Yours truly, ESPN Radio -- Smith is name number one on the Maize n Brew wish list. At Kentucky, basketball is what football is to Michigan. Much like Lloyd, Tubby enjoyed some early success but has never been able to re-climb that Everest. Despite never winning fewer than 20 games, never missing the tournament, four Elite 8's, 6 conference championships, and a national championship, Smith appears to be on the hot seat after Kentucky was bounced early from the NCAA tournament. It's no secret that there's no love lost between Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart and Smith, and some Kentucky fans think Smith would be better suited for Ann Arbor than Lexington. Hell, some want him gone, period.

Smith is as good an X's and O's coach as there is in college basketball, an outstanding recruiter who's never had a whiff of NCAA trouble, and a solid dude. He recruits very well from the Detroit area and isn't afraid to get to ask for what he wants. Any deal that would bring him here would likely involve a guarantee of new practice facilities and a very large ($2-$3 million/year) contract.

Potential Impact: H-U-G-E. Big name, big money coach. Instant change in the balance of Big Ten power. Smith's the type of Coach that would bring in truckloads of donor cash and recruits Michigan to date can only dream about. He's, in my opinion, the best case scenario.

Chances: 30%. While the rumor mill is cranking up steam, there's nothing to indicate Smith wants out. He's repeatedly stated he's staying and that Kentucky is his home. The only thing that will bring him to Ann Arbor is him either being fired or him saying "Screw it, I don't need this crap".

Interesting stuff.

Finally, a tidbit from the Lexington Herald-Leader, as it critiques the Tubby Smith call-in show last night:

The UK coach balked when a caller based a question on a "downward trend the last few years." He interrupted to say, "Last few years? Excuse me."

When the caller finished the question, Smith noted how Kentucky came within a double-overtime loss in the region finals of reaching the Final Four two years ago.

On to the recruiting news, of which there is some ... well, not news, exactly but some commentary. Let's start again with the LHL talking about Kentucky signee AJ Stewart (link same as above):

During his official visit on Big Blue Madness weekend, Stewart received assurance from Barnhart that Smith would remain coach, the player's high school coach said.

"The A.D. told him Coach Smith will be there as long as you're playing," Stewart's coach, Rex Morgan, said.

Williams' high school coach, Mark Vincent, dismissed speculation of Smith not being at Kentucky next season.

"You forget I'm from Kentucky and I know Kentucky people," said Vincent, a native of Mulhenberg County. "To me, that's not speculation. That's just typical Kentucky fans."

A lot has changed in Wildcat country since Big Blue Madness, coach Vincent. Will the truth become a lie?

Mike DeCorcey of The Sporting News has an article on Patrick Patterson, including some first-hand reporting of the oft-rumored closeness of Tubby Smith with the Patterson family:

After Kentucky's Tubby Smith watched a recent game, he greeted the Pattersons and offered to shake hands with Tywanna Patterson, Patrick's mother. She gave Smith a hug. An NCAA representative happened to be there, so Smith made sure to point out who initiated the contact -- almost like arguing ablock/charge call during a game.

Hmmm. What a Catch-22 we are in here. Smith goes, Patterson goes. Smith stays, Patterson ... well, maybe he goes then, too, we just don't know. Also Matt Jones, as usual, has some recruiting info you should check out if you haven't.

Finally, The Kentucky Democrat weighs in with his support for Tubby Smith:

I'll say it again. The university would be crazy to buy out Tubby Smith's contract. As coach, Smith has had more NCAA wins than Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and UNC in the NCAA Tournament in the past nine years. We have made it to the Elite Eight sveeral times but for many, it just is not good enough and they want him out. If Derek Anderson joins the staff, as the rumors are saying, we could start landing some top notch recruits out there.

But would Tubby be crazy to take the money if it was offered and say, "Thanks for the memories" to this quixotic place?

I'm just askin' ...

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Comments

Michigan doesn't make sense

The biggest obstacle for the Tubby to Michigan rumor is money or the lack of it. If we have learned anything from modern day sports, it is that you can't eliminate money from the top one or two reasons for any action. Here are some things to consider:
UK Basketball Budget
6.8 Million (12% of total athletic budget)
Michigan
3.6 Million (5% of total athletic budget)
(these numbers above from MidMajority.com)
Tubby's UK Salary - 2.1 Million
Lloyd Carr's Salary - 1.1 Million
Tommy Amaker Salary - 700K

Monday's PTI, Michael Wilbon said as a "Big 10 guy", Michigan has the worst facilities in the Big 10. Certainly a long, long way from the $30 Million Craft practice facility.

Going from UK to Michigan in basketball is a huge step down. That is just the dollars and not including the prestige factor. It is pretty much like going from Michigan to UK in football.

I hope Tubby stays, and I believe he will. But if he leaves for another job, it won't be Michigan.

by PapaKat on Mar 21, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

Excellent post

You make a very solid case.

I guess if I were Smith and just received a $5M golden parachute from UK, I just might take a step down in salary if the University promised to upgrade its facilities.

Make no mistake, I don't think Smith would accept less than $1M per year with significant performance bonuses. Yes, the Michigan job is a huge step down, but let's face it - virtually any job that is likely to be available anytime soon is a huge step down. There is no such thing in college basketball as a step up from Kentucky - there are only lateral moves and precious few of those.

I think Smith can rule out North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana, Kansas and Duke, so he can forget about $2M+ contracts - they don't exist outside of a very few possibilities. Your next step down would be guys like Michigan State, Syracuse, Arizona, UConn, etc. Those schools aren't looking for coaches, either.

Michigan represents what I consider the third tier of college basketball - Schools with the potential to reach the final four every 5 years or so. Smith could theoretically transform Michigan into a tier 2 with some facilities upgrades, but he would still be in a similar situation to Billy Donovan at Florida. But look what he did with a football school. If UM were to make the same commitment ...

by Glenn Logan on Mar 21, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

like papa says

"It is pretty much like going from Michigan to UK in football."

Yep. That's it in a nutshell. Dollars, cents, prestige, facilities, and lack of racehorses...

Plus he'd be too close to Izzo. Tubby ain't going to Michigan.

"for every homey, there's a mama"

by jbbaseline on Mar 21, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

As the world turns ...

Sweeps week begins with a whimper.

Don't expect Lucas or Patterson news in advance of McDonald's game next Wednesday.

Tubby news will likely be a wave, statement or just action, but hard to believe it'll happen this week, either, despite the teeth gnashing of BBN.

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Mar 21, 2007 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

Derek Anderson on staff

would be nice, no doubt, and I think a big help in landing the talent we covet.

I just don't see how Michigan works out for Tubby. The only reasons that anyone can think of for Tubby going there is to get AWAY from Kentucky. Not to GO TO Michigan, but just to get out. I think Tubby's smarter than that.

Maize'n'Brew gets the "outstanding recruiter" part wrong, though, as so many fans do. Confusing the recruiting of name and hype players with spotting, recruiting, and developing talent.

by Logan5 on Mar 21, 2007 7:49 PM EDT reply actions