Hell hits 32 degrees F., whither Smith, Morris, Patterson and Lucas?

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 8:30 AM EDT in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball

Of course, now that the season's over, there are really 3 big questions on the mind of the Big Blue Nation right now:

What is Tubby Smith's disposition going to be?
What of Randolph Morris?
What of Patterson and Lucas?

First, the Smith situation.

As many of you know, I have continually commented on the much-ballyhooed meeting that supposedly occurred between Tubby Smith and Mitch Barnhart last year. For once, Mark Story of the Lexington Herald-Leader gets it right:

It is widely believed that last off-season, Kentucky Athletics Director Mitch Barnhart approached Smith about making staff changes -- and Tubby demurred.

This is the first actual departure from what is possibly a UK urban myth reported as fact I have seen in many weeks. Well done, Mark.

But that's not all Story gets right:

I'm not among those who think Smith deserves to be fired. His overall 10-year record at Kentucky, as well as the way he's represented both the university and the state, merits more time for him to return UK to its traditional basketball status if that's what he wants.

However, as I've noted before, there is no excuse for it being as hard as it's seemed in recent years to lure top high school talent to play basketball at UK.

Indeed. It is incomprehensible that UK should have this much difficulty landing a quality power forward, or point guard, or ... well, any quality player.

Of late, there seems to have been a more organized effort to land quality recruits. The problem is, no matter who matriculates to UK over the next couple of years, we can expect a lag before the benefits of that recruiting solidify. So people who want to give Smith "one more year" to get it right may be living in a bit of a daydream.

Many people are discussing the possibility of Tubby Smith going to Michigan, and the long-predicted firing of Tommy Amaker becoming reality has now intensified that thinking:

Dick Vitale heavily encourages Michigan to hire Tubby Smith (on Mike and Mike)... And he goes on a shaming spree for all those who dare to complain about Tubby's record.

And not only are the blogs loving the Tubby Smith/Michigan possibility, even Gene Wojciechowski of ESPN says Tubby should leave before he gets fired. He doesn't say it, but it looks to me like he's thinking UM, too:

This is why Smith should bolt. Not because of some knucklehead fan, but because Barnhart might be listening to the knucklehead fan. In some cases -- and you can ask former Pittsburgh Steelers coach Bill Cowher about this -- it's just time to move on. It's nothing personal, it's just time.

Ten years at Kentucky are like dog years at almost any other program. Sometimes you can stay too long and not even know it. The fans grow bored, or spoiled, or in Kentucky's case, both.

Well. It's hard to say what Smith will do, but as I said below, I expect something sometime this week on his future. There is no reason to draw this out any more.

Moving right along, Randolph Morris has a big decision to make, and we shouldn't expect it too soon:

Morris said he'll discuss his options with his parents - if he chooses to explore the NBA at all.

"I'm not really sure if it's even up to Randolph at this point," guard Ramel Bradley said, noting that an NBA team first has to be interested in Morris. "But I'm very confident that he'll be back next year. And if he wasn't, this is what you live for. He's going to be chasing his dream."

I have no idea what Morris will do, but I do know that not all of it is up to him. First, an NBA team has to offer him a contract, and although that could happen this season, it most likely won't happen until after the draft has happend and washed itself out in late June or early July.

Finally, on the Patterson/Lucas front, we can expect some decisions to be made when the Smith situation is sorted out. Jai Lucas and Patrick Patterson have both cited Smith as the major reason for their interest in UK, and if Smith won't be back, it's a safe bet they will be matriculating elsewhere.

But we do have this observation from Rick Bozich:

If watching UK play Kansas did not convince potential recruits Patrick Patterson and Jai Lucas that an extraordinary amount of playing time is available in Lexington, nothing will.

Heh. How true. Matt Jones believes that McDonalds All-American weekend will be where Lucas makes his call. Makes sense to me, but then again, I'm almost 50 years old and trying to read the mind of an 18 year-old. The margin of error is therefore very great ...

Update [2007-3-20 12:18:39 by Truzenzuzex]: There is a rumor going round that Patrick Patterson verballed to Florida this weekend. This rumor appears to be false. Thanks to the intrepid folks at TCP.

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Random Rumor Alert

FOX Sports Radio reporting that Patterson verballed to Florida over the weekend. I sort of doubt this, given how long he's waited, UNLESS Tubby has told him something he didn't want to hear.

Still, there it is. Wouldn't surprise me.

At this point, what's the point in getting worked up? Will it matter given we have no idea who's even going to coach next year?

Blech.

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by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

That report is ... crapolicious.

It is another regurgitation of opinion as fact. Every time Patterson's name gets mentioned, somebody reports it as Patterson to Florida.

You'd think there would be some Patterson to UK rumors out there. But the reality is, that wouldn't get anyone but Duke in an uproar, and they have 25% of the number of fans that UK has. Nah, if you want to get noticed, just report "Patterson to Florida".

Why would a kid who has played it this close to the vest for so long suddenly allow his decision to be leaked? I mean, you have to appreciate Patterson's penchant for drama - why would he suddenly chuck it all? Not happening.

Weren't the Fox Sports people the ones who broke the news of Randolph Morris' commitment to Georgia Tech?

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes.

Agreed on all counts.

I think they broke the "Paulus is good" story two years ago, also.

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

If Fox reports it

it must be true - why do you hate freedom?

by olddoc on Mar 20, 2007 3:19 PM EDT reply actions

Truz

Good write up, although we'll disagree about whether he deserves more time.

I do agree that the one or two more years scenario simply won't work. Not only is the talent gap huge. The recruiting will still be a struggle due to massive negative press, and negative fan issue as well. I just think that after every loss the media and fans would grow louder making his status that much shakier and recruiting that much harder.

That's why I think at this point it's better for him to resign and start fresh. Of course that fits my preference as well; however, even independent of what I want I don't know that any coach could turn this around under the weight that Tubby will have to endure.

by kb22stang on Mar 20, 2007 3:50 PM EDT reply actions

I really don't think ...

that the talent gap is "huge". I think we would have had a much better chance against any other #1 seed other than Kansas. We just match up very poorly against them, they have great quality depth in the front line (though a bit undersized), and frankly, they had a very good shooting day and we had a bad one.

But I do agree that there will be some negativism surrounding the program if Tubby stays. That's just the way it is. If he decides to stay, he has to realize that the odds are somewhat against his success, although he has done far more with far less than he will likely have next year, Morris or no.

The problem with resigning is that it doesn't make good business sense unless UK sallies forth with some millions. If they do, he may well consider it strongly. We'll just have to wait and see.

The question is this - do you quit now and give up $4 million, or wait until next year, get a $1.5M longevity bonus and $3M if you get canned?

I know what my choice would be. Any man who won't risk suffering a little ignominy and grief for $4M is not doing what is right for his family, all other considerations notwithstanding.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Well ...

Our "talent gap" was lower with both schools at the end of last year, wouldn't you say? We had 3 McD's and several very good role players last year, but fewer of both this year.

But I do agree that two more quality recruits would put our talent back where it belongs. Then, we must build on that.

I didn't mean to suggest it was impossible for us to turn it all around in one year, but if you look at who we are currently recruiting, it doesn't look that likely. Patterson and Lucas are nice players, but they aren't program changers like, say, Durrant or Oden.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny ...

... one of the primary reasons Donovan recruited the current junior stars (only one of which was four-star/Burger Boy, btw) is because Tubby was shipping his Long Island ass over and voer with those guys Tubby "couldn't recruit well enough" to get: Fitch, Daniels, Hayes, Hawkins and the like.

So which is it? Tubby can't recruit but whips the SEC for 8 years or Tubby can recruit, he just can't coach?

You can't have it both ways.

Player development is one of the big non-discussed issues here.

I'm of the opinion that this is where the assistant coaches come in. Why is Crawford so mediocre? Do any us honestly think had he gone to Michigan or Michigan State he would be the same player? I don't.

Rondo, btw, is the best rookie point guard in the NBA. He may or may not be selfish, but without him, we would have lost 15-18 games last year.

Pick your poison.

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

uh .. .

Taht should be WHIPPING his ass, not shipping.

Note to self: Read what you wrote, dumbass

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by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Money

The easy solution is paying him his 1.5million AND his contractual obligation. You can raise that kind of money.

But the talent gap is wide. Kansas was far superior at EVERY position besides center, and depth made them better at that position. UCLA, Kansas, Florida, UNC, OSU and even Memphis all have a more talented starting 5 then UK did this year, and our starting 5 won't be markedly better next year. Heck, next year UofL have a much more talented team.

Meeks and Morris are the two guys that have "elite" level talent. I believe Jasper and Crawford do as well, but Crawford appears lost and Jasper got worse as the season went along.

I just think it would be tough for ANY coach to fix this problem under the current contraints.

by kb22stang on Mar 20, 2007 4:12 PM EDT reply actions

Look ...

if I were Tubby Smith in the current scenario, and somebody came to me with $5.5M to resign, I would do it. Simple as that. But I am not him, and nobody knows if that offer exists.

As far as talent is concerned, Kansas was theoretically superior at all but two positions - you would have to call Rush and Crawford "even", if you go by what we knew when both were brought into the program. Kansas has, what, 4 McD's to our 2? Many teams have handled that scenario before, including UK. Heck, the much-maligned Bobby Perry was the second leading scorer and was defended by Micky D's.

Our biggest problem was that we had poor guard play - a third scorer (Crawford, Bradley, Meeks) and that game is a little different. But those aforementioned were like 8-31. Remember the old saw about guard play dominating the tournament?

U of L will have a talented team, but their freshmen are not really any better than ours. If we are successful with Patterson and Lucas, we will have at least 3 McD's on the team, plus Meeks, Stephenson and Jasper who are all top 50's, top 100 Stewart, Mike Williams, Michael Porter and Jarred Carter.

Assuming that comes to fruition, the problem doesn't seem quite so daunting, does it? On the other hand, if Patterson and/or Lucas go elsewhere, the job becomes more difficult.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Character

Derrick Character is far more talented than any of our current freshmen, including Jodie Meeks.

Not saying he was better THIS year, but if Pitino's mind games work on Character, he is going to be unstoppable.

Maybe next year, which is my fear.

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by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I totally agree with with your characterization...

of Caracter. That guy has force of nature potential. We'll see if Pitino can keep him healthy.

by senowen on Mar 20, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Healthy and ...

... out of the weed bag / police blotter.

For some reason, he has "DUI" written all over him.

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree.

Caracter is talented, but no more so than Meeks, IMO. He is also a known head case. I hope he has gotten past that, but I expect otherwise.

Caracter has excellent potential, and I think he'll be good at Louisville. But I think Meeks will be great.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Tru ...

You're such a homer ;)

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Mar 20, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Truly ...

I am. ;-)

Well, I've been called worse.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

talent

tru

I wasn't talking about talent based on recruiting rankings, once they're here I couldn't care less where they were ranked. I'm talking about talent period. Rush is a better player then Crawford.

And UofL's freshman are better then ours.
Character and Meeks have similar talent level
Sosa far greater then Jasper at this point
Clark more talented then Stevenson
Smith > Porter

Who knows how it shakes out, but those guys have shown more ability as a whole then our guys.

Speaking of which, I really liked Jasper's game early in the year. I hope he can get back to that, and avoid tubification for his career. :)

by kb22stang on Mar 21, 2007 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, official word from Patterson's mouth ...

He has committed to ...

Nowhere.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2007 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

OK, can someone explain...

why people keep hammering the "we had x number of McDonald's All-Americans!" meme like it's the answer to the Kennedy assassination?

It doesn't matter if they were McDonald's All-Americans, Burger King All-Universes or Jimmy's Chicken Hut All-County players when they got here. What matters is what they are while they're playing for us, and in that respect, Kansas had us covered in every area.

Getting into a dick-waving contest over how many guys on the roster won awards for playing against less-talented competition in high school doesn't answer the real question: what is being done to improve the caliber of play of all the players on the roster?

It doesn't matter if Michael Jordan, Jamal Mashburn or Dr. James Naismith himself hand-delivers five kids to the front door of Wildcat Lodge and says "these are the five greatest freshmen in the country" if they aren't coached to compete to the fullest extent of their abilities. You cannot possibly argue that the players on Kentucky's roster have been coached that way, because their play shows it to be false.

It doesn't matter what kind of awards these recruits arrive on campus with. What matters is if they're legitimately talented enough to play at Kentucky, and if the coaching staff can develop their skills. For the past few years, Orlando's been 0-for-2 on that one.

by Quietude on Mar 21, 2007 1:04 AM EDT reply actions

Here's why

Lots of people constantly gripe about the "talent level" at UK, and I think some of that criticism is justified. For example, how do you justify a recruiting class that consists of Thomas, Orbzut, and Bobby Perry? IMO, you can't - those guys can develop, and they have, but not to the same level as, say, a Jasper or a Meeks or especially a Brandon Rush. The odds are, their ceiling is just lower or they will not fully develop until after their college years.

Now, sometimes the 4 and 5 star guys disappoint, either in speed of development or in ultimate development. But when they were recruited, Crawford and Morris were considered to be as good or better than Rush and Julian Wright. So to say that Kansas is "much the best" talent-wise is entirely relative to time and circumstances that can't all be foreseen.

Had Rondo stayed, would "talent" still be an issue? Arguably yes, but more because of who developed faster than anything else.

Let me ask you a question - do you think Morris and Crawford are "talented enough" to play at UK? At Kansas? At UNC?

by Glenn Logan on Mar 21, 2007 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I kind of agree ...

well, actually I concur in part and dissent in part.

Crawford has been somewhat disappointing, but certainly not to the level of, say, a Rod Rhodes.

But he would certainly start for Vanderbilt, or almost any other SEC team not named Florida, IMO.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 21, 2007 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Hey...

don't even mention RR around here, you'll start a riot.

Crawford has been a huge disappointment to just about everyone, probably even himself. And there is plenty of blame to go around. But, to say that Crawford is an OVC caliber player or that he wouldn't start for Vandy is fairly outrageous/shrill. The guy is athletic, strong, plays tall and has the potential for an excellent inside/outside game. IMO, Crawford's talent and style of play have been mishandled by the coaching staff. Could be he's lazy, but doesn't seem likely to me.

by senowen on Mar 21, 2007 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Crawford could easily start...

at one of the SEC West schools or South Carolina.

Florida? Hell no. Tennessee? Possibly, but you'd have to find a way to get him in around Lofton. Georgia? If Stukes and Gaines are playing alongside him, can they distribute the ball enough to get everyone their touches?

Of course, this argument misses the real point: what has been done in his three seasons to make him a better player than he was when he got here? What has the coaching staff done to improve his shooting, his decision-making and his defense?

Do we have a roster that fits better at Murray State or EKU than at Kentucky? Absolutely. From what we've seen, Carter's another stiff, Ramon Harris is an All-OVC player, Mark Coury and Michael Porter could be All-OVC and Jasper is regressing to about that level.

Part of being a coach is developing the players you recruited. If you're going to recruit players of a talent level below the rest of the league, you have to bust your hump to make them play at 100% of their abilities, and Orlando hasn't come close to that.

by Quietude on Mar 21, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm sorry ...

but you lost me with "Do we have a roster that fits better at Murray State or EKU than at Kentucky?" - that just isn't a serious argument. How many McDonalds All-Americans have ever played for those schools? For that matter, how many Rivals/Scout 4-stars? Please.

As far as player development is concerned, not every talented player develops as fast as we would hope. I offer Bogans, Camara and the aforementioned Rhodes as classic examples, but there are many others over the length and breadth of coaches. So that argument, to me, looks facile and unserious.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 21, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

So wait...

your entire argument is founded upon "these guys are good because a for-profit company says they are, and a fast food restaurant recognized them for playing against high school athletes of obviously inferior abilities"?

An Internet site saying a kid is a "4-star player" doesn't amount to a hill of beans. Quit acting like it's any more reliable an indicator of collegiate ability than, say, shaking a stick over their heads.

And how did Orlando make Bogans a better player? His stats didn't appreciably between his first and second seasons beyond showing better shot selection, and he regressed in his junior year. His "improvement" between his junior and senior years was just him returning to average.

Camara losing a season due to the DUI makes evaluating him difficult, because he naturally regressed from not playing regularly.

by Quietude on Mar 21, 2007 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe I have said ...

that player development doesn't always go according to plan. Look at "Big Baby" - you can't argue that he played as well, statistically or otherwise, this year over last.

Players often regress a year, both in college and at the next level. What does that mean? Nothing, except that they are human beings. It isn't a knock on the coach, and it isn't a knock on the player. It is simply a fact of life.

And my argument isn't based on the "burger boys" being the be-all and end all of high school player evolution, or evaluation. But from a layman's perspective, that's about all we have. How many times have I seen people come on here and say the reason we don't win is because we don't have enough McDonald's all-Americans?

By the way, your diatribe about "for-profit food company" is silly. Dragging out red herrings is a profitless enterprise with me. ;-)

Finally, I do believe the scouting services are much more accurate, on balance, than "shaking a stick" over the heads of high school players. If you don't, well, OK. But I never suggested, nor will I, that either McDonald's,s Scout, Rivals, or any other recruiting evaluator is 100% right. But they are better than nothing.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 22, 2007 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Smells like, sounds like and even tastes like ....

the TRUTH.

Of all the comments and opinions in this particular discussion so far I think this nails it down as accurately as any.

Seemingly unbiased yet extemely dead on.

by wldcatsfreak on Mar 22, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Coury/Porter/Carter/Harris

I disagree that these kids aren't good enough to be here. Are they immediate impact guys, no. But they each have skills that could make them valuable role players down the road.

Coury- the kid is a banger, and I'd bet with some coaching he'll be a solid rebounder and defender
Porter- the kid has toughness, a jump shot(which you will see eventually)plays with great intensity
Carter- in year 3 or 4 this kid will be a contributor, not a star but a solid role player
Harris-athletic kid that's worth a stretch

These guys shouldn't be the meat of your rotation, but together they form a solid bench

by kb22stang on Mar 21, 2007 6:30 PM EDT reply actions

For once...

we are in agreement. Nice.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 22, 2007 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

No, I'm not kidding.

As you should well know by now, I am incapable of frivolities such as humor. ;-)

Seriously, Crawford is undoubtedly more talented than either of Vanderbilt's starting guards. Whether he would start or not is a purely rhetorical exercise, since we will never know.

The only player that probably wouldn't start for any other SEC school is Bobby Perry. He would probably be first or second off the bench. Jasper would start for some schools but not for others. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

In my opinion, Crawford is a victim of his own selfish expectations. Hopefully, he'll get it right next year.

Like you, I would love to see Patterson and Lucas in Blue. We may. Hope springs eternal ...

by Glenn Logan on Mar 22, 2007 9:00 AM EDT reply actions

The OVC caliber thing...

is completely laughable. I mean, it makes me laugh when I see someone say that Harris or Coury match up with EKU players. Have you actually watched any OVC teams play any 1st Tier schools? I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but if you had, seen any such game, you would not be making such silly comments.

OK, I'll give you Porter. He has not looked all that impressive and does not have great size or athleticism. But, even given that, he would be an absolute star in the OVC. Coury and Harris would be career making catches for an OVC school.

by senowen on Mar 22, 2007 11:06 AM EDT reply actions