Some things to keep in mind ...

by JL Blue on Mar 11, 2007 10:51 AM EDT in Events

As we approach the NCAA Tournament Selection Show and the release of the official brackets this evening (6 p.m. ET, CBS), a legion of UK fans -- fed up and frustrated -- is starting to get itchy about the Kentucky bid.

I am not one of them. Here are the reasons (a) the Cats are a lock for the tourney and (b) the UK seed could be better than you think.

(1) Strength of Schedule
Much has been made, and rightly so, about UK's lack of wins over ranked teams. And, similarly, much has been said about how, then, the Kentucky schedule is still among the top 2 or 3 in the nation according to all indicators.

But while the Cats have come up short against the best of the best, very few teams in the nation have played more quality teams (50-100 RPI).

To wit, among the UK non-conference opponents who either made the field, finished atop their conference's regular season or competed in the conference finals are:

Miami (OH) - Regular season #2 MAC, NCAA Tourney as Conf. tourney champ
UMass - Regular season champ (tie), at-large possible
EKU - NCAA Tourney as OVC champ
Santa Clara - WCC #2, lost to Gonzaga in conf. finals
College of Charleston - Lost to Winthrop in conf. finals
Houston - Lost to Memphis in conf. finals
Miss. Valley State - Lost to Jackson St. in conf. finals

Take a look. EVERY SINGLE non-major conference, non-conference foe either palyed for a chance to make the NCAA Tourney or made the NCAA Tourney. So while it's understable to think the committee will punish the Blue and White for their lack of big time wins, dont' be surprised if they reward the Cats for beating a slate of strong out of conference teams.

(2) Fan Support
Let's face it, Big Blue Nation travels. That's unsurprising. But the amount of money the NCAA and its sites stand to make from the legion of Kentucky fans is both remarkable and distinct. In some ways, placing the Cats in a nearby locale, even as a lower seed, would bring in hundreds of thousands of duckets. A win or two only amplifies that. If you think this doesn't factor into who makes the field and where, you really are too naive to drive.

(3) The Numbers Game
With 21 wins and an RPI in the 10-12 range across the computers, there is simply no precedent for leaving the Wildcats out of the field. Yes, there were problems with the last 10 games, and, yes, the season did not go as planned. But compared to many of the other major conference teams being considered, the Cats stack up more than favorably.

I expect Kentucky to be a 7 or 8 seed, in Winston-Salem or Chicago. A win over Miss. St. might have scooted the Cats to a 6 seed. I'd be very surprised with such computer numbers if the Big Blue slid to a 9 or 10, though certainly it can happen.

Regardless, the time for recriminations and blame is over. It's Tourney time, and the Cats need everything we have as fans. One more loss ends the long, strange trip of this season, and begins the unfolding of all the other stuff.

Postponing that "stuff" for a few weeks would be nice, eh?

Tweet Comment 13 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I think your take ...

is pretty much right on.

I wouldn't be that surprised at a 10 seed though. I am actually hoping for either a 7 or a 10. 8-9 is the kiss of death, since you play a 1 seed in the second round.

Not that I don't think we can beat a 1 seed, but I would much rather play a 3.

By the way, what is a "ducket"?

by Glenn Logan on Mar 11, 2007 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

I'm assuming that "ducket" is

is some sort of transliteration of ducat.

by senowen on Mar 11, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

seeds

I don't see a 7 happening. I think an 8 is the best case scenario for Kentucky and also the most likely. I also think a 9 is distinctly possible and a 10 is sort of a long shot but a better possibility than a 7.

And of course, there's really not much difference between an 8 or a 9. Either way, Kentucky would face stiff competition in the second round under that scenario.

Only a few hours to wait and see... :)

Orange & Blue Hue http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Mar 11, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

Kentucky is an 8 seed

By the way... check this great link.

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

Kentucky averages an 8 seed across a bunch of different bracketologist's brackets.

Orange & Blue Hue http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Mar 11, 2007 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

Well...

if you throw out the ESPN and CBS brackets since their analysts are biased against UK and skew all the brackets up one seed based on the NCAA committee's favoritism towards UK then you end up with a solid 7 seed and a maybe 6 seed.

by senowen on Mar 11, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Another thing

that some folks seem to be missing is that a 21-11 record is simply not the same now as it was 5-6 years ago. Its not even the same as last year. With the kind of parity across the major conferences that has taken hold of late, such a record puts most teams in the number 3-6 range of their conferences. I haven't crunched the numbers, but I'd bet their are about 30 teams with a similar record looking for an at large bid. The difference maker between not only making the tourney, but also the seeding has got to be strength of schedule, top 100 wins and top 25 wins. While we certainly are lacking in the latter category, the first two categories are very strong for the cats. That being said, I personally think we are a solid 7 seed. While most cat fans would probably be surprised at a 6 seed, I still think its a distinct possibility.

by senowen on Mar 11, 2007 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

I will take anything

but an 8 or 9 seed.

Don't want that second game against #1.

a perpetual state of bliss

by piketaylor on Mar 11, 2007 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

Duke.

What a joke.

Well, we got the dreaded 8-9. Par for this season.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 11, 2007 7:05 PM EDT reply actions

I abase myself ...

I like your attitude. I think I'll adopt it in this case. :-)

Bring it on!

by Glenn Logan on Mar 12, 2007 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Rock Chalk

I'm not sure if I want to play you guys or Nova in the second round, assuming we can get past the first round for the first time in 3 years.

I just moved from Lexington 2 years ago so I know how crazy everyone is about basketball. You guys are a solid #8 team, but didn't really deserve anything else.

Also, the MSM never has a bias against the SEC or ACC, there is no anti-Kentucky bias.

Trust me.

Come and visit Rock Chalk Talk, it's what your mom would want you to do.

by rockchalktalk on Mar 12, 2007 12:06 AM EDT reply actions

Well ...

I would be surprised if Kansas couldn't get past a 16 seed, and I think very few if any who read this blog would quibble with an 8 seed for UK. We were hoping for better, but I don't think anyone really expected anything other than what we got. We'll make do.

WRT your comment on the MSM, ACC and SEC, I'm not really sure why we should trust a Jayhawk fan's take over our own.

Duke's seed is unquestionably higher than they deserve. Don't know if that means bias or just inertia, but it is way high, IMO.

And if you were making a sarcastic funny, I apologize. Sometimes it's just hard for me to tell.

by Glenn Logan on Mar 12, 2007 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry to be dense but...

what is the MSM? I'm assuming it is something to do with the sports media. Anyway, the idea that some of the sports media are biased towards and against some teams and/or conferences should neither be surprising or controversial. It's sports for god's sake, it's supposed to be biased. I'm biased against the ACC and Big 12 for being completely overrated and underperforming in the tournament every year. So what? Bring it on.

by senowen on Mar 12, 2007 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions