The Music City Bowl -- Time to talk football again

by Glenn Logan on Dec 26, 2007 11:57 PM EST in Kentucky Wildcats Football

It is time for us here at A Sea of Blue to begin our coverage of the Music City Bowl. With the game a mere 6 days away, it's time to begin our run-up.

Here is just a small preview of what I have planned:

A Q & A exchange with the SB Nation Florida State blog, Tomahawk Nation;
A full statistical analysis of the game;
As much news coverage as I can muster;
Several open threads dedicated to MCB talk;
I plan to liveblog the game.

The Music City Bowl is a huge, huge opportunity for the Wildcats. Yes, Florida State will be limping into this game, but lest you think we are a lock for victory because of their suspensions, just remember -- Florida state's players look just like ours - except every one of them has an additional star beside his name. They have way more 4-star players than we have 3-stars, and more 5-star players in one class than we have had in memory. Even if these kinds of ratings aren't the be-all and end-all predictor of player performance, getting those highly ranked recruits provides a demonstrable, statistically significant correlation to on-the-field success. Don't just take my word for it, recall this post I made linking Outside the Sidelines (now blogging for our SB Nation brother Roll 'Bama Roll ) excellent work. His conclusion:

To be specific, the correlation between recruiting rank and winning percentage rank was a robust .7202. That's not quite as strong as the .8 that we saw between overall team recruiting rankings and winning percentage, but it's still very strong.

At bottom, the teams that sign the most four and five star players are generally the ones that do the best on the playing field. Certainly there were a lot of busts included in those numbers, but on the whole the teams that signed the most high-quality players did better than the rest. It didn't correlate quite as high as overall team rankings, I presume, because recruiting isn't just about signing four and five star players (although that's the majority of it), it's also about signing some players that are rated three stars and below and turning them into quality football players as well.

So don't think that the wounded Seminoles are just going to stand by and let the Wildcats disembowel them -- it won't happen. They have a legendary coach on the sidelines and a pretty good recently-anointed successor. FSU will be wanting to win this one for Bowden, so we must prepare as though we are facing a team with as much talent as LSU or Florida -- because on paper, we absolutely will be. There is no telling when a team like this suddenly lives up to it's potential, and if the Wildcats want to take home it's second bowl trophy in a row, it is going to take the best that they can give on the field.

At the same time, we won't be ignoring basketball, which means I will be a very busy person for the next week. Comes with the territory, I'm afraid.

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Respect

Let us not forget, we do not have Locke and we may not have Burton or Warford. FSU is not losing any of their key players. They will be tired of hearing how UK is going to beat up on them and will be looking for respect. Also, the backups who are going to play will treat this as an opportunity to show the coaching staff that they too are talented.

With all the BS going on, we will be an underdog before this is over.

If you were arrested and charged with being a Christian, would there be enough evidence to convict you?

by Seymour on Dec 27, 2007 1:32 AM EST reply actions

Vegas Line

I'm a bit surprised the line is UK -9.5.

Tru, your lineup for the week looks good. I am particularly interested in the Q&A with Tomahawk Nation. Their take on the scandal, and how it effects the team could be very telling as to the mindset of the team.

by Ken Howlett on Dec 27, 2007 1:54 AM EST reply actions

The naysayers may rule on this game...

If we beat them it will be, "We'll of course you beat a decimated FSU team." If we lose it's, "You can't even beat 2/3's of a Florida based team." Go Cats, anyway!

Stinky Blue

by Stinky Blue on Dec 27, 2007 7:58 AM EST reply actions