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Promoted from the Diaries: How Long Are You Willing To Wait?

In looking at the North Carolina program and their record when they had a down year I thought it may be interesting to look at both them and UCLA to see how long it really took to bring the programs back to where they are truly an elite team again.  The last 10 years for North Carolina looked like this:

Year     Record     Season Ended
97-98       34-4       Final 4
98-99       24-10      1st Round
99-00       22-14      Final 4
------------------------
00-01       26-7       2nd Round
01-02       8-20       End of Regular Season
02-03       19-16      NIT Quarterfinals
------------------------
03-04       19-11      2nd Round
04-05       33-4       NCAA Champions
05-06       23-8       2nd Round
06-07       31-7       Elite 8

UCLA's Last 10 years:

Year     Record     Season Ended
97-98       24-9       Sweet 16
98-99       22-9       1st Round
99-00       21-12      Sweet 16
00-01       23-9       Sweet 16
01-02       21-12      Sweet 16
02-03       10-19      End of Regular Season
--------------------------------
03-04       11-17      End of Regular Season
04-05       18-11      1st Round
05-06       32-7       NCAA Finals
06-07       30-6       Final 4

I use both of those examples to show that after a team had been worn down with a lack of recruiting great talent it took at least 2-3 years to truly turn the program around and get it back to where it should be.  In our case people are talking about next year and what the team will look like next year, but if history serves with truly elite teams like UNC, UCLA and UK, it will take more like 2 to 3 years to truly get the talent level back where it should be.

I think BCG will get it turned around but we must give him the time he needs.  Even rushing to judgment next year would, in my opinion, be too soon to tell anything.  So I ask you, How Long are you willing to wait for the UK program to get turned around?

*Note: The dashes indicate a coaching change

Poll
How Long are you willing to wait for the program to get turned around?
1 year
2 votes
2 years
2 votes
3 years
15 votes
4 years
7 votes
5 years
2 votes
More than 5 years
1 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

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Comments

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Great post.....
I have been wondering what the exact figures looked like when UNC and UCLA were rebuilding.  I remember ready a UNC blog where a fan was trashing the cats year so far.  I wanted to reply and shove these numbers in his face.  

by yonder24 on Dec 20, 2007 7:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Martin
Hopefully, the panic stricken will review these numbers and gain some perspective regarding this season.

To the best of my knowledge neither UNC nor UCLA suffered through the injuries UK has endured this season.

In Carolina's case youth was the offending element. I like Steve Lavin, but I have never seen teams as schizophrenic as his were.

I certainly don't think UK is looking at a 2-3 year rebuilding period.

Great post, MartinGolf9. (Are you a 9 handicap?)

by Ken Howlett on Dec 20, 2007 8:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes....
I am a 9 Handicap now...but the reason for the 9 is that it is my lucky #...its the name I have on several other places and have had for years so it is what i remember
C....A....T....S CATS CATS CATS

by MartinGolf9 on Dec 20, 2007 9:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A 9 ...
hmm.

You're almost as good as me. :-)

by Truzenzuzex on Dec 20, 2007 11:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Small quip
It would be helpful to have the Years in a column alongside the other data so that we know which row is more recent.

by Clandestine on Dec 20, 2007 8:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Years start from top to bottom:
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
C....A....T....S CATS CATS CATS

by MartinGolf9 on Dec 20, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

4 - 5 years
I don't think it will take that long but thats how long I'm willing to give Gillispie before I even start to question his coaching ability. I figure in 3-4 years he will have most of his own players and his style set within them......I figure the 5th year could be 'the' year.
Honestly I'm kinda looking at 2009-2010....Meeks and Jasper as seniors, Patterson as a junior(if we're lucky), Miller and Liggins as sophomores, a good freshman guard in Vilarino......not to mention other possible big time pick ups like Hopson

by spork on Dec 20, 2007 11:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

3 - 4 Years
Thank you
You did what more writers in Kentucky must do and study history.  We cannot expect Coach BCG to turn this around in one year.
Thank you - I hope you can share this with more fans in Kentucky than just bloggers

by deWildcats on Dec 21, 2007 8:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If anyone could promise me
that UK would win an NCAA Championship within 3 seasons of the horror that we are currently enduring right now, I would gladly turn my frown upside down about the current doldrums.

I'll take the 'UNC Path to Success' for $300, Alex.

What a way to send P-squared out in his Senior season!!

by vickster3 on Dec 21, 2007 10:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Great post
Martin9!! You've summed up the reloading situation amongst our peers succinctly.

by bluecrip on Dec 21, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm willing to wait...
... a long, long, LOOOOOOOOOONG time.

Longer the better.  Heheheheheheh.  :)  Just kidding guys.

Orange & Blue Hue http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Dec 21, 2007 12:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

GP
Get your shots in while you can.

You know it's coming.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Dec 21, 2007 4:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

major programs winning trends
The link below has a graph that I really like (though it is too cluttered).  It is the 3 year average winning percentage, over history, of the major traditional power programs.  As you can see, every one of them has dropped below 60% (even over a 3 year time period) at some point in the last 25 years or so.  Unfortunately, it hasn't been updated since about 2005.

http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/Graphics/Graphs/ncaapercentthreeyear.gif

by johnr on Dec 21, 2007 11:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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