UPDATE: Rondo takes off, so what's next?
by JL Blue on Mar 14, 2006 9:57 PM EST
Email
PrintI have had conversations with well-placed colleagues in regards to Rajon Rondo's intentions to turn pro, and still I don't believe it.
I have seen mainstream media sportswriters rumor monger that he is staying, and I don't trust them.
In my dreams, and in my opinion, Rajon will see that he has more to gain from returning with a strong junior core than he does with leaving with no jumpshot.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I can dream!
Update [2006-3-18 16:3:33 by JL Blue]:
From the Cats' first-round postgame in Philly on Friday ...
University of Kentucky guard Rajon Rondo said he will wait until after the season to think about entering the NBA draft.?All of my focus is on beating UAB right now,? Rondo said. ?I?ll evaluate everything after the season. ... I will definitely stay in touch with Coach,? Rondo said. ?He?s the first person I?ll go to. A lot of people might tell you where they think you?ll go in the draft, but you have to listen to the people you trust.?
If he?s projected as a lottery pick, he said he definitely would go. Otherwise, he?s not sure.
Update [2006-4-25 11:16:31 by JL Blue]:
Rondo decided -- with apparently little argument from Coach Smith -- that he was ready to try his hand at professional basketball. I tend to be the optimist in the room when it comes to Rondo, figuring that like Andre Miller or Jason Kidd, Rondo will find his spot with more training, something much more likely to happen under the watchful eyes of pro coaches and with dedicated time to practice, not studying.
With his departure, Rondo leaves an open backcourt spot alongside probably Joe Crawford (at SG). Will that spot be filled by Junior-to-be Ramel Bradley, or will incoming frosh Derrick Jasper and Jodie Meeks find themselves the beneficiaries of extended PT?
Time will surely tell.
10 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Rondo will be drafted if he goes, but...
There have been several good NBA point guards who had little shooting ability, yet were high draft picks out of college. The one most comparable to Rondo is Jason Kidd. There were four things that got Kidd drafted in the lottery: he was an incredible ball handler, he was a deft passer, he was athletic enough (but by no means a freak) to be a strong on-the-ball defender and he made good decisions with the ball. Kidd shot the ball better than Rondo, but too poorly for most NBA point guards. Kidd was the #2 draft pick in 1994.
How does Rondo stack up? Rondo is an outstanding ball handler, but not quite up to Kidd's standard yet. Rondo is a good passer, but nowhere near as adept as Kidd was when he came out. Rondo is an athletic and physical freak with huge hands and excellent agility. He is better defender than Kidd ever was in college or his early years in the league. Rondo's decision making is good for college, but well short of being able to call it an asset for an NBA resume. Rondo is an excellent rebounder, but that isn't among the skills that the NBA looks for in point guards, except as it relates to "nose for the ball" intangibles.
Rondo's shooting is a definite negative, far more so that Kidd's weak jumpshot when he joined the league. Rondo is not quick or explosive in the traditional sense - rather, he is quick like a cat, so smooth and deceptive with such excellent body control that almost every defender in college is disadvantaged against him. That won't be true in the NBA.
Conclusion - the NBA can't and won't pass on Rondo, but neither will he be in the draft lottery. He is not a game-changing point guard like Kidd or Iverson, he is shorter than average for an NBA point guard and has a way to go in learning how to make his teammates better. He is raw and his most marketable skills are his handle and his defense. NBADraft.net has him at #13, taken ahead of more accomplished players like Josh Boone, Daniel Gibson, Sheldon Williams, Marcus Williams and Dee Brown. Not likely. I would place him between 20 and 25.
If he waits another year and develops a serviceable jump shot and better passing skills, Rondo becomes a lottery pick. Will he stay in Lexington, where the Herald-Leader lurks to headline some part of his personal life or trump up another SUV story or (God forbid) get injured?
Tough call, but right now I'm thinking take the sure thing, and I'll bet he is too.
Too right.
Williams is definitely their weakness, maybe their only weakness, because nobody else on the team has shown the ability to do what he does. Operating without a serviceable backup is always a problem - just ask Tubby when Randolph Morris gets in early foul trouble.
Update on top of thread ...
After the UConn game...
What does this mean? I don't know. He seemed to suggest afterwards that he is inclined to return, but I think that will change after Smith lays down the law. I am not sure and have no real knowledge, but my impression is Smith and Rondo have a testy relationship right now, and I have no doubt that Smith is going to demand much more accountability from his players next year. He has implied as much very strongly, even at this early juncture in the post-2006 season and despite an inspired UK performance against UConn.
Given all this, I think Rondo's future is in the NBA. He has shown enough game to be reasonably certain that he will go in the first round, and in pre-draft camps he will have a chance to move up into the top 15 picks (some services already have him there, but I'd make a sizeable wager against it if the draft were held today).
I place his odds at being the UK point guard next year at 35%, and of a transfer at less than 10%. Tubby Smith needs scholarships, and Rondo needs a jumpshot. The two needs are incompatible, and something has to give.
maybe ...
Lots can happen, though your assessment is probably spot on.
True enough
Rondo could also hate Sparks, for all we know, and there is no sharing of the point next year, as Ramel and Jodie Meeks will man the SG, while jasper provides depth.That's true - there is really no knowing what the dynamics of the team interrelationships are for someone as far removed from it as I am. I read an article the other day that suggested Smith had a testy relationship with both Sparks and Rondo:
Sophomore point guard Rajon Rondo never made eye contact with Smith during several strategic conversations. Once, when Smith gave directions to Patrick Sparks, the senior guard continued walking with his back to Smith and said, "OK, Coach."Who is souring the pot? I don't know, and the Courier-Journal is definitely not the best source for factual reporting about inter-team dynamics.Smith responded to no one in particular: " 'OK, Coach.' That's all you guys ever say."
With that said, we know that something went wrong this season. Many of us suspect player-player and player-coach relationships were less harmonious than normal. We have seen the team repeatedly ignore what we reasonably believe to be Smith's instructions. We may never know everything, but I expect some fur to fly shortly.
by Glenn Logan on Mar 20, 2006 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
He Will Definitely Put His Name In The Draft...
Draftability
The first question is just how draftable is Rondo? Tubby has gone on record with several radio quotes stating, "I expect Rondo to find some opportunities at the next level." That he thinks Rondo could make an NBA roster and says "I will encourage him to enter his name into the draft to test his draftability." That is a pretty strong endorsement and many fans are taking these statements to mean Tubby thinks Rondo should leave College and go to the NBA. However, that is not necessarily true.
Historically, Tubby had Padgett, Magloire, Bogans, Prince, Hayes, etc. all test their draft marketability. In fact, the only pro prospects he didn't help test the waters by entering the draft early were Mohammed, Daniels and Morris (Mohammed caught everybody off guard by entering the draft having already hired an agent; Daniels developed late after his junior year; Morris excluded Tubby). Tubby had each of them put their names in the draft, but not retain an agent, for the experience and information to be gained from the process. After checking out the draft market and having their eyes opened, each of them returned to college.
It's the obvious ultimate goal of every kid playing basketball (at Kentucky) to make it to the NBA some day. So, though Rondo was quoted after the UConn game as stating he will be returning to Lexington next season, that should be discounted as he later told some local media sources the question at the time caught him off guard, saying, "Man, I didn't know what to say." I think there is little doubt that Rondo will submit for the draft with Tubby's approval and assistance. Rondo undoubtedly learned from Morris' situation last year and it will make him very very cautious. The real question is will he stay in the draft or withdraw and return to Lexington.
Where Will/Would He Be Drafted?
It seems reasonable to assume that Rondo will leave college if he has a high probability of being a lottery pick. I'm equally sure he would withdraw and return to college if he judged his chances weren't good to be selected in the first round. What he would do if he fell to the bottom of the first round is open to conjecture.
Every mock draft I've seen has Rondo drafted in the first round. In some, he is a projected lottery pick. Others have him first round but outside the lottery. However, imo, mock drafts are pretty worthless. Last year, I saw mock drafts that had Kennedy Winston and Randolph Morris going in the first round. This year, along with Rondo, I see some suspect names high in the mock drafts like: Tyrus Thomas - 6 & Josh McRoberts - 5. (Why wouldn't you prefer Marco Killingsworth, Marcus Sommerville, Jemareo Davidson, or Brandon Roy?) With regards to Rondo, what I don't see are the names of some guards I like better right now: Ron Steele, Allen Ray & Ronny Brewer. Kentucky fans can be forgiven for projecting a high draft position for Rondo. However, I'm skeptical.
For sure pro teams see the younger guys as wild cards thanks to the many lottery flops. NBA teams may prefer to rely more on demonstrated performance but some teams just can't help drafting on potential thus the new age rule. Perhaps that is the basis for favoring Rondo in these mock drafts but for my money he has passed the point where you would draft him on potential and, if you are forced to draft him on demonstrated performance, I'm not convinced he would be drafted ahead of the second round and possibly ... possibly... not at all. Rondo might not even be second round material right now. I'm not sure Rondo will do well enough in individual workouts (players with first round aspirations increasingly avoid camp participation) that some team will draft him in the first round based on potential.
He's certainly not nearly as accomplished as a lot of the other PGs that went early in the lottery in the last few drafts:
2005
- Deron Williams Illinois - Jr.
- Chris Paul Wake Forest - So.
- Raymond Felton UNC - Jr.
- Ben Gordon UConn - Jr.
- Devin Harris Wisconsin - Jr.
- Sebastian Telfair - HS.
- TJ Ford Texas - So.
- Luke Ridnour Oregon - Jr.
That is until the NCAA tournament. Rondo exhibited the kind of floor leadership against UAB and UConn that may have been enough to get him drafted this year should he decide to leave early. In the last two games, Rondo played under control, ran the offense, and it was apparent to everybody. Without Rondo, Kentucky had no prayer. Without those two games, `Rondo going pro' is not a serious topic of discussion. But did you see a lottery pick in those two games? I didn't.
As you've pointed out, Rondo's shooting percentage need not deny him first round draftability. (Dwyane Wade can't even shoot the 3, and he is arguably the best guard in the league.) My opinion is Rondo needs to have a better outside stroke because even though he doesn't have to hit the three, he needs a nice 15-18 footer to keep the defense honest. Of even more importance, I believe, is Rondo's struggle at the stripe. To take advantage of his primary talent, the NBA will expect Rondo to take his man off the dribble every opportunity he gets. Without the ability to make the defense pay at the line, his effectiveness and thereby court time will be severely limited. The lack of a decent jump shot or reasonable freethrow shooting would seem to push him well down in the draft. So the question becomes is he first round at all and would he take the opportunity if he weren't a lottery pick.
Rondo's stock might rise if he participates in the NBA camps, which play to his strengths. As a pro, he can spend his entire day shooting 500 freethrows and working on his mid-range jumper as well as his 3-range. With his ability to play the NBA's man-to-man in the league's overall defensive vacuum, he can have a nice career as a role player and back up point guard. But would a GM invest a first round draft choice on such a player? I don't think so.
What Might Rondo Gain Staying In College?
Whether my analysis is correct or not, I'm sure Tubby is able to accurately assess Rondo's probable draft status. If I'm right, Rondo would be lucky to get drafted anywhere in the first round. In addition, it's also reasonable to think that Rondo could do more damage to his draft status if he returns to college through further eroding performance or injury and this year's draft is missing a year's worth of high school players who will conceivably make future drafts even more competitive. So, it's my belief that Tubby will advise Rondo to stay in the draft if he is likely to be drafted anywhere in the first round.
Failing the first round, I'm sure Tubby hopes to encourage Rondo to come to a meeting of the minds over his draft situation and an understanding of what he has to improve as a collegiate athlete to reach his goal.
Can Rondo's NBA stock improve with further time in college? Lots of fans feel Rondo should come back and develop his outside shot. I am not sure it will get much better. He spent all last summer trying to improve his shooting; it didn't get markedly better. Many think a player's shooting skills seldom improve at this point in their career. I think that if he were a great shooter we would have seen it by now. However, Rondo would be well advised to do what he can to improve his shooting. Rondo with everything but a jumper might be a million dollar a year player; Rondo with a jumpshot is worth millions more a season.
One area hard work does seem to make a difference is in freethrow shooting. NBA point guards need to make freethrows. If they don't they will be fouled constantly at the end of games or sit on the bench, either way they are a liability. Rondo certainly needs to make dramatic strides in his freethrow performance. Physical strength, mature decision-making and shot selection are other areas Rondo can make himself more attractive to the NBA.
Finally, nothing puts a glow on a player like leading a team to the final four or a national championship. Rondo needs to make everybody on the floor with him better and if necessary put them on his back and carry the team to success during crunch time.
Good Luck Rajon!
GO `CATS!!!!!!!!
... fantastic!
Glad to have you aboard, Weaver...
Great post...
DraftabilityThat is pretty much spot on. I would say that from an overall standpoint (i.e. the "50,000 foot view") Rondo is a very attractive prospect for pro teams. His negatives and positives are well known, so I won't rehash, but the net of all of them are highly favorable for a first round pick.
The first question is just how draftable is Rondo? Tubby has gone on record with several radio quotes stating, "I expect Rondo to find some opportunities at the next level." That he thinks Rondo could make an NBA roster and says "I will encourage him to enter his name into the draft to test his draftability." That is a pretty strong endorsement and many fans are taking these statements to mean Tubby thinks Rondo should leave College and go to the NBA. However, that is not necessarily true.
It seems to me the big question is where will Rondo go in the first round. I still figure that there is about a 15-20% chance he may slip into the second round. Teams usually draft talent first, needs second - they can always trade a talented athlete for a better fit. Most credible prognosticators have Rondo going in the 15-25 range, and I think that is about right.
He's certainly not nearly as accomplished as a lot of the other PGs that went early in the lottery in the last few drafts:In terms of overall development, I couldn't agree more. Rondo is raw compared to all the guys you mention. However, Rondo brings things to the table that none of those guys do:
...
- Maybe the best handle in recent memory - Rondo handles the ball better than any point guard currently in college, and better than 80% of the current NBA point guards. The only player I can ever remember who handled the ball better coming out of college is Jason Kidd. Kidd also had no jump shot, yet he was drafted #1 overall.
- A great combination of quickness and anticipation - In the pros, you are able to freelance more. If you think Rondo was disruptive on defense at Kentucky, he will have even more freedom to poach at the next level. Defensively, teams could hardly do better than Rondo.
Can Rondo's NBA stock improve with further time in college? Lots of fans feel Rondo should come back and develop his outside shot. I am not sure it will get much better. He spent all last summer trying to improve his shooting; it didn't get markedly better. Many think a player's shooting skills seldom improve at this point in their career.I would take issue with the naysayers. Rondo has a classic problem with his shooting technique that will most likely be fixed fairly quickly in the NBA. When you are paying athlete millions, you will bring more resources to bear on problems like shooting and free throw technique.
Rondo's free throw percentage was bad this year, but his technique was much improved. Part of the problem he is having is properly positioning the basketball on his oversized hands - Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal are famous for having this problem. Jordan solved it (but not in college), and O'Neal never did. I think Rondo is more likely to solve it than not, because making free throws as a point guard is much more important than as a big.
As I have said, I believe Rondo will enter the draft without hiring an agent and stay in when he discovers he will go in the first round. I think there is only about a 25-35% chance he will hit the lottery, but an 80-85% chance he will hit the first round given current assumptions about who will be in and who won't. Obviously if, say, a Marcus Williams decides to stay in school his status could improve, but if a Ronald Steele comes out it could decline.
As you correctly point out above, coming back to UK is potentially risky to his status, but with Rondo's talent, I would expect nothing but an improvement. Still, improvement to a lottery pick from 16-30 is not worth the risk, IMO.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
[UPDATED 01/18/2012]
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
